Why Philippines and Japan strengthen security ties

Manila and Tokyo boost military cooperation with historic agreement, aiming for greater autonomy and regional security

By Alessia Caruso

The Philippines and Japan have recently finalized a significant security agreement after years of negotiations. The new Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) allows the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) to expand joint military activities, including large-scale exercises significantly focused on interoperability and joint response to various contingencies such as disasters and armed conflicts. Additionally, the RAA facilitates the transfer and exchange of sophisticated weapon systems, enabling the Philippines to advance their naval modernization efforts in response to ongoing disputes in the South China Sea.

The signing of the agreement has been celebrated by Philippines as an "unprecedented level" of defence relations with Japan, highlighting the growing military cooperation between Manila and Tokyo. The agreement must be ratified by the parliaments of both countries before it comes into effect, but no significant obstacles are expected. The Philippines and Japan share several security interests that led to the signing of the RAA. Both countries are involved in territorial disputes with China: the Philippines in the South China Sea and Japan in the East China Sea. Furthermore, the strategic geographic positions of the Philippines and Japan make them natural partners in the context of the Chinese threat to Taiwan, a critical point for regional security. A joint defence between the two significantly contributes to the integrated deterrence in the region outlined by their U.S. ally.

In recent years, Japan has significantly increased its involvement in the ASEAN region, becoming one of the main investors and the preferred partner for many Southeast Asian countries. This renewed regional commitment has been well received by the Philippines, which has played an active role in reintegrating Tokyo as a key ally for stability and security in the region.

It is important to note that the RAA was signed just three months after the consolidation of a trilateral security partnership among Japan, the Philippines, and the United States (JAPHUS), aimed at strengthening the Indo-Pacific security architecture and enhancing regional deterrence strategies. At first glance, the new bilateral agreement might appear redundant, as it is driven by the same intents as JAPHUS but without the presence of the United States. However, the new agreement between Manila and Tokyo should be interpreted as a Philippine attempt to reduce its dependence on U.S. security.

Following a period of heightened tensions, recently culminating in the death of a Filipino fisherman after a collision with a Chinese commercial vessel, the Philippines are outlining a series of security measures with a dual objective: to cool regional tensions with China and reduce the risk to their national security, currently closely tied to the uncertain American policy. The bilateral rapprochement strategy with Japan aims to ensure a direct relationship between the two East-Asian powers, distancing itself from the ties that bind them to the United States. Recent events, such as the agreement to enhance bilateral maritime communication mechanisms with China, indicate a Philippine intention to pursue a more autonomous and pragmatic foreign policy.

A central factor in this context is the current instability and uncertainty of American policy. The possibility of a second Trump term introduces further elements of unpredictability, casting a shadow on the U.S. commitment to maintaining its military presence in the Far East. The aggressive policy of the Philippines falters in the face of the need to rely less on the Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States, which so far has been the backbone of the Philippine position in the South China Sea.

Looking to the future, it is foreseeable that the Philippines will focus more on developing bilateral relations with regional powers and on cooling tensions with China while awaiting the United States to define the future of its foreign policy. This approach, though different from the strategy adopted in recent years, could offer new opportunities to ensure the country's security and prosperity in an evolving geopolitical context. The Philippines' ability to navigate these dynamic developments will be crucial in defining its role and influence in the Indo-Pacific region in the coming years.