Thailand seeks entry into BRICS

The Bangkok government has decided to join the growing group led by emerging economies

Southeast Asia is poised to make its official entry into BRICS. On May 28, the Thai government approved the submission of a letter of intent to join the multilateral platform led by emerging economies. If the request is approved, as all indications suggest, Thailand will become the first member of the group from the ASEAN region. BRICS initially consisted of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, but as of Jan. 1, 2024, five more countries joined: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. Thailand is currently included in the list of 15 countries that will soon be considered for admission. The decision made by Bangkok is expected to speed up the process ahead of the next summit, scheduled for October in Kazan, Russia. “BRICS membership will strengthen Thailand's role as a leader among developing countries,” said Chai Wacharonke, government spokesman, at a press conference organized to announce the formal step. The letter outlines dozens of benefits for Bangkok in joining BRICS, one of which is the possibility of collaborating with other countries in the global South to strengthen its presence on the world stage. Thailand, moreover, is trying to frame its foreign policy moves as part of a broader proactive diplomatic approach that emphasizes involvement with institutions such as BRICS and the OECD. Not so much as a balancing act between great powers, but to promote its own economic interests and cultivate ties with a wider circle of developed and developing countries. The Thai initiative is an interesting sign because it shows the dynamism of the so-called “Global South,” with emerging countries committed to strengthening various multilateral platforms. Indeed, as Bangkok formalizes its intention to join the BRICS, Indonesia is taking similarly decisive steps toward joining the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Indonesia, already a member of the G20 representing ASEAN, is the first Southeast Asian country to formally request to discuss membership. In recent days, Mathias Cormann, secretary of the OECD, visited Jakarta to speed up the process designed to bring the country's status to that of full membership. Cormann met with outgoing President Joko Widodo to discuss next steps. Jakarta aims to achieve full membership within three years.

Hong Kong and Singapore: patterns of development and economic competition

The Singaporean economic model is more resilient and complicated to replicate because it is based on unique characteristics

By Francesca Leva

The competition between Hong Kong and Singapore is not just a regional phenomenon but a global one. These two cities, both international finance and trade centers, are not just rivals but also mirrors reflecting the economic prowess of the Asian and Southeast Asian region. They boast some of the best transportation systems worldwide, house the most prestigious universities, and attract tourists from all corners of the globe. In terms of business climate, both Singapore and Hong Kong offer streamlined regulations and competitive tax systems, numerous investment opportunities, and dynamic sectors, making the competition even more intense. Historically, Hong Kong and Singapore have been fierce competitors, each with its unique features. However, the outbreak of the pandemic and the subsequent measures taken by both governments have sparked a debate on whether Hong Kong's golden age is waning in favor of Singapore’s ascent.

 Hong Kong is renowned for being a free-market economy driven by international trade and finance, where governmental laissez-faire and low taxation have been favorably conducive to businesses. In Hong Kong, only income earned within the city is taxable, the maximum corporate tax is 16.5%, and legal compliance is much less rigid. On the other hand, Singapore was classified as the easiest place to do business, as well as a corruption-free country. Although the corporate tax is slightly higher – 17% - Singapore can count on its robust legal framework and extremely efficient workforce. In terms of investments, Hong Kong pivots on one of the largest stock markets, and it has become, in fact, an IPO hub. Considering its close ties with China Mainland, the city has also become the largest offshore RMB hub worldwide, originating and intermediating 2/3 of China’s FDI and Outward Direct Investments. On the other hand, Singapore is famous for its generous grants, loans, and tax incentives, which attract numerous startups, angel investors, and venture capitalists.

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Source: CBRE.

Immagine che contiene testo, schermata, Carattere, diagrammaDescrizione generata automaticamente

Source: CBRE.

Recent developments in Hong Kong have injected a new dimension into the competition, sparking a debate about the city’s life quality. First, Hong Kong is dominated by oligopolies and cartels, especially in the construction, power, and supermarket sectors, while Singapore is seen as more innovative and diversified. Moreover, the pandemic measures – which burnt most fiscal reserves - and a critical job market situation led to around 200.000 ex-pats leaving Hong Kong, while Singapore saw a 16% increase in foreign professionals. It is, however, worth mentioning that while foreign companies decreased by 5% in Hong Kong, mainland companies relocating to the island during this period increased by 18%, perhaps paving the way for a new phenomenon. As a consequence of this economic divergence, as of 2022 Singapore’s GDP was 1.7 times higher than Hong Kong’s.

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Source: World Bank.

Singapore also displays some critical issues, such as the increasing use of capital punishment, an inactive civil society, as well as prohibitive housing prices. The ongoing competition between the two centers has also started to involve cultural and social life: online, it is easy to find debates about which city has the best food, which one has the best nightlife, or where the most scenic views can be found.

What is interesting from this competition, however, is not whose GPD is higher or who displays greater FDI flow figures. It is rather a matter of developmental and economic models, which then influence the way these places are subject to and react to the changing patterns of globalization. Hong Kong policies have increasingly focused on making the island a gateway to Beijing by integrating it deeper into its economy. It is worth mentioning that 77% of listed companies in Hong Kong are from China Mainland. Hong Kong has developed as a knowledge-intensive economy with a strong focus on its leading sectors: business and financial services, which make it highly dependent on capital flows. On the other hand, Singapore has invested massively in R&D, human capital, as well as industry diversification. There, MNCs play a great role in local development, attracting talent and broadening the range of opportunities: the local economy is more diversified, encompassing the manufacturing sector, financial services, as well as information, tech, and communication services. Finally, as opposed to Hong Kong, Singapore acts as a gateway to Southeast Asia – being one of the founding members of ASEAN – benefitting from lowered trade barriers and distancing itself from the China-US competition.

Immagine che contiene testo, schermata, diagramma, lineaDescrizione generata automaticamente

Source: CBRE.

Immagine che contiene testo, schermata, linea, CarattereDescrizione generata automaticamente

Source: CBRE.

Overall, Hong Kong's focus on its competitive advantage exposes it more to global trade flows and globalization trajectories, as its features can be replicated in other places at lower costs, such as China Mainland. In contrast, the Singaporean economic model is much more resilient to replication, as it is built on unique features, domestic strengths, and stratified R&D progress, making the city more resistant to disruptive economic events.

New horizons of cooperation between Italy and Thailand

The balance of Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin's visit to Rome

By Alice Freguglia

May 21, 2024 Palazzo Chigi hosted Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, who was visiting Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Infrastructure, digitization, energy and tourism promotion were the topics most discussed by the two leaders, with a view to promoting bilateral relations in favor of greater socio-political cohesion and with the goal of ensuring the full development of both countries.

As early as last year, in 2023, on the occasion of the 155th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Italy and Thailand, the Chambers of Commerce of both nations signed a memorandum of understanding, promoted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation and Unioncamere, which further strengthened economic and trade ties, as well as underscored Thailand's importance as a partner. With a young and constantly growing population, in fact, the Thai territory would really represent an important resource for the Italian economy, able to offer significant opportunities for businesses, as also stressed by Andrea Prete himself, President of Unioncamere.

Thailand, in fact, as the political heart of ASEAN, represents a natural entry point for Italian companies wishing to access the markets of Southeast Asia, an area that, in addition to encompassing more than 600 million people, has an interesting market potential. Remarkable, in fact, is the volume of Rome-Bangkok trade, which in 2023 reached a value of about 4 billion euros, with Italian exports of 1.9 billion and imports of more than 2.1, representing an allied and reliable market, a source of economic and political stability.

“We intend to discuss cooperation with ltaly, whether it is trade and investment, agriculture, fashion or renewable energy. As well as tourism. In fact, more than 190,000 Italians come to Thailand every year.” These were the Thai leader's words, a prelude to a meeting later described as 'satisfactory' by Giorgia Meloni, in which ItaIy promoted and strengthened its international relations with its partner.

Expanding and improving travel within the territory, in fact, is one of the key domestic policy objectives for Thailand, and what better example to take inspiration from than Italy? Our country, in fact, boasts some of the world's most prominent and recognized companies in terms of quality and innovation. The Made in Italy stamp, in fact, can be placed on countless large-scale projects, such as the high-speed rail network, but also on the construction and management of civil works such as bridges, roads, ports and airports.

Similarly, recent initiatives such as the PNRR, National Recovery and Resilience Plan, focused on the implementation of major investments to ensure greater digitization of public administration and to support Italian industries, is also an exemplary imprinting for Thailand, which, in its own way, with the implementation of the so-called 'Thailand 4.0' plan aims to achieve an economy based on innovation and technology.

The environment will also be positively affected by this strengthening of Italian-Thai relations. In particular, Italy's experience in renewable energy would represent significant 'know how' for Thailand, which could not only take a cue from the technologies adopted to cope with the global warming emergency, but also rely on valuable investments that would allow it to make the most of its natural potential.

If there is anything, however, that unites these two seemingly distant realities, it is, surely, the beauty that attracts millions and millions of tourists each year, lovers of both pizza and pad thai. Strengthening trade relations, in fact, will also be able to ensure a greater influx of guests and visitors to both territories, a very important economic source, especially for two countries that from the historical, naturalistic and monumental point of view, have much to offer to the eyes of those who look at them with curiosity and a desire to broaden their horizons.

Srettha Thavisin, moreover, would seem to have convinced Giorgia Meloni regarding Thailand's desire to join the OECD, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Founded in 1961, the OECD provides a platform for governments to discuss and coordinate economic and social policies.Member states collaborate on issues such as economic growth, employment, education, innovation and trade, with the goal of creating a stronger and more sustainable global economy. Joining, therefore, would greatly elevate the country's status, allowing Thailand to gain international recognition and benefit from a socioeconomic knowledge exchange that would enable it to promote better political dialogue and economic cooperation.

In this regard, moreover, it would appear that Giorgia Meloni has accepted an invitation from Prime Minister Thavisin to visit Thailand, a significant step forward in bilateral cooperation between the two countries, as well as a confirmation of Italy's commitment inI'paving the way for further discussions and collaboration on strategic issues.

Singapore, the best is yet to come

We publish here an excerpt from the inauguration speech of Lawrence Wong, the new prime minister of the city-state

Today marks a significant milestone: a passing of the baton, not only between leadership groups, but also between different generations. I am the first Prime Minister of Singapore to be born after independence. Almost all of my team colleagues were also born after 1965. The story of my generation is the story of independent Singapore. Our lives bear witness to the values that have forged our nation: Incorruptibility, meritocracy, multiracialism, justice and equality. These principles are deeply rooted in all of us. We understand the vital importance of good leadership, political stability and long-term planning. We ourselves are the beneficiaries of the imaginative policies of our founding fathers, pursued with determination and patience for decades. Shaped by these experiences, our leadership style will be different from that of previous generations. We will lead in our own way. We will continue to think boldly and think far ahead. We know there is still much to be done as the history of our island-nation continues to unfold. There are still many pages to be written. And the most beautiful chapters of our Singapore history await us. (...) Singapore's position is strong. But the world around us is constantly changing. For 30 years, since the end of the Cold War, we have enjoyed unprecedented peace and stability in the Asia Pacific. Unfortunately, that era is over. Great powers are competing to shape a new, as yet undefined global order. We need to prepare for these new realities and adapt to a more messy, riskier world. (...) Today Singapore is at a high economic level compared to most other countries. By international standards, we have built excellent systems of education, housing, health care and transportation. But circumstances are changing, technology is advancing and the population is aging rapidly. Therefore, we cannot afford to muddle along. We must continue to do our best to improve, upgrade and transform Singapore. I am convinced that we can and must do better. As Singaporeans, we all know what it means to exceed expectations, to go beyond what others think we can do, or even what we ourselves thought we could do. When the going gets tough, we don't collapse. We move forward, with confidence in our fellow citizens and in Singapore's future.

Full speech here

Thailand changes its mind on cannabis

Two years after decriminalization, Thailand may re-list cannabis as a narcotic, dismantling a potentially billion-dollar industry

By Francesco Mattogno

The decriminalization of low-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) cannabis use, made official on June 9, 2022, is undoubtedly among the many contradictions that characterize Thailand. The political context in which Bangkok decided two years ago to ease its crackdown on marijuana, turning Thailand into the first Asian state to allow its recreational use, was that of Prayut Chan-o-cha's government, with a strong military component and a number of civil parties. The largest of these was the Bhumjaithai (BJT) of the then deputy prime minister and minister of health, Anutin Charnvirakul, who was among the biggest supporters of marijuana decriminalization in Thailand.

After promising this in the election campaign, in the summer of 2022 Anutin managed to convince allies and win a large majority in parliament to bring about the removal of low-THC cannabis from the list of narcotic substances. A victory that, just under two years later, could be wiped out by a new government, this time with civilian traction, of which he himself is deputy prime minister and interior minister. 

Through a post on X, Thailand's prime minister, Srettha Thavisin, announced on May 8 that he would reinstate low-THC marijuana to the list of narcotic drugs. Cannabis would not be considered a hard drug like heroin or cocaine, but it would again become illegal to grow, sell and possess, with penalties of up to 15 years in prison. Srettha and his party, Pheu Thai, had promised to crack down on marijuana use back in the election campaign, and so had all the major parties, including the progressive Move Forward and to some extent Anutin's BJT, which claimed to want to strengthen its regulation.

According to what was announced, the medical use of cannabis will remain legal and the crackdown will be limited to recreational consumption, that is, the real object of what Srettha called to be a “war on drugs,” which also includes measures against other substances, far more dangerous than marijuana. Technically, the 2022 decriminalization came as a result of a Ministry of Health order that merely included hemp within the “controlled herbs”-this was not an actual law, and that turned out to be its biggest problem.

Beyond some minimal guidelines (such as the need for a cultivation license, a ban on smoking in public or sales to minors under the age of 20), recreational use of cannabis was never really regulated, and only became tolerable as a result of a regulatory vacuum. A vacuum also due to the fact that, in the months following decriminalization, parliament changed its mind on the issue, not allowing the various drafts submitted by Anutin to become law. A law would have strengthened the controls and regulatory soundness of legalized cannabis use, which would have been more difficult to overturn today.

As the parties squabbled over the issue, later shelved as the campaign for the May 2023 elections began, in two years some 8,000 stores have sprung up across the country to sell inflorescences, oils or other hemp products to the public, and more than 1 million Thais have applied for and obtained licenses to grow. Although it is theoretically only legal to sell marijuana with a THC content of less than 0.2 percent (similar to “cannabis light” in Italy), the lack of a law has also made it possible to trade cannabis at a normal level of THC, which is the active ingredient that makes weed consumption psychotropic. However, inflorescences with a very low percentage of THC have no altering effect. To speak of a “war on drugs” would therefore be not entirely appropriate in this case.

This is also claimed by several Thai associations in support of cannabis legalization, which have asked the government to bring in scientific evidence to support that marijuana is more harmful than alcohol and cigarettes. Two years after decriminalization, the industry of growing and selling hemp products has now established itself as a major player within the Thai economic system-a ban would bring thousands of small business owners and workers to their knees.

According to estimates, the industry could grow to be worth $1.2 billion in 2025, to over $9 billion by 2030. The “war on drugs” would risk handing this huge market back into the hands of organized crime, but Srettha does not seem inclined to turn back. The prime minister has told his new health minister, Somsak Thepsutin, that he has 90 days to present progress on the issue. With the exception of medical uses, consuming cannabis in Thailand could become illegal again by the end of 2024.

Crisis in Myanmar: prospects for peace in Southeast Asia

More than 2.6 million people are displaced at this time. The latest on Burma's civil conflict

By Luca Menghini

To date, Myanmar is embroiled in a complex and brutal conflict that is having a significant impact on Southeast Asia. The Myanmar military junta, through its army, the Tatmadaw, is struggling to maintain control of the country in the face of growing resistance from various ethnic insurgent groups and pro-democracy forces. This war is having profound effects, influencing regional stability, human rights, and international relations.

The conflict in Myanmar intensified following the military coup on February 1, 2021, which overthrew the democratically elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi. The coup sparked widespread protests and the emergence of an expanding armed resistance movement. Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) and the new People's Defense Forces (PDFs) have united against the military junta.

The Tatmadaw is suffering numerous setbacks, losing several key territories, particularly in Rakhine State, where the Arakan Army has made substantial advances. This loss has forced the military to resort to desperate measures, including the forced conscription of Rohingya males. These new recruits, often coerced to fight under threat, are sent to combat in a war that has already devastated their communities.

The Rohingya have been subjected to severe persecution for decades by the Myanmar government, with the 2017 crackdown leading to accusations of genocide. Now, they find themselves trapped between the military junta and insurgents. The forced recruitment of the Rohingya not only highlights the Tatmadaw's desperation but also exacerbates tensions and risks further fueling ethnic conflicts.

Myanmar's strategic importance is evident given its location, acting as a bridge between South Asia and Southeast Asia. The conflict impacts traditional trade routes in the region and security dynamics. ASEAN, which traditionally adopts a non-interference policy, is finding it difficult and complex to maintain regional stability. Member states are indeed concerned about the humanitarian crisis and the potential for the conflict to spread to neighboring countries.

The two Asian powers, China and India, both have significant interests in Myanmar and are navigating a complex geopolitical scenario. China, in particular, has invested heavily in the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, crucial for its Belt and Road Initiative. Any instability is thus a major concern for these projects, leading China to facilitate a diplomatic channel to mitigate the negative economic impacts of the conflict.

The humanitarian situation in Myanmar is dire. More than 2.6 million people are currently displaced, and human rights abuses are rampant and widespread. The international community, including the United Nations, has condemned the violence and called for tougher sanctions. In April 2024, the European Union renewed sanctions against Myanmar, including 19 individuals linked to the military junta. This action aligns with countries like the United States, which continue to pressure the military junta through economic and diplomatic means.

Despite these efforts, geopolitical interests complicate the unity of the international response. The outcome of the conflict remains uncertain. The Tatmadaw's grip on power is weakening, but opposition forces face challenges in coordinating and finding economic resources to continue the fight against the regime. The prospects for a negotiated agreement seem distant, and the risk of a prolonged civil war is very high.

The situation in Myanmar requires a lot of attention. How the conflict evolves will have a significant impact on regional stability and the lives of millions of people. ASEAN and the broader international community must navigate a complex crisis, balancing geopolitical interests with the urgent need for peace and humanitarian aid.

The future of Myanmar depends on resolving the conflict. The path to peace is fraught with challenges, but it remains essential for the stability and prosperity of Southeast Asia. The international community must continue to pressure for a peaceful and just solution, where all voices in Myanmar are heard and respected. Additionally, the recent involvement of foreign volunteers and international support for the resistance movement highlights the global dimension of the conflict, underscoring the urgent need for a more coordinated and inclusive international approach to bring peace and resolve the conflict.

Tech, why people are investing in ASEAN

Gregory B. Poling and Japhet Quitzon's analysis for the Center for Strategic and International Studies

The 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) constitute the fastest growing online market in the world, with 125,000 new Internet users per day. U.S. tech giants are aware of the strategic importance of Southeast Asia and are strengthening their presence in the region with large investments pledged by Apple, Microsoft and Amazon in recent weeks. 

In mid-April, Apple CEO Tim Cook made a trip to Vietnam, Indonesia and Singapore. He announced a planned $250 million expansion of the company's Singapore campus, which will reportedly focus on artificial intelligence. Cook also said Apple plans to increase investment in Vietnam and explore manufacturing opportunities in Indonesia.

Shortly thereafter, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella visited Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand from April 30 to May 2. On his first stop in Jakarta, he announced plans to invest $1.7 billion over four years in cloud and AI architectures in Indonesia, the largest investment in the company's 29 years in the country. The next day he said Microsoft will open its first data center in Thailand, based on an agreement with the Thai government to provide cloud and AI infrastructure. 

Nadella then traveled to Malaysia, where he announced plans to invest $2.2 billion in cloud computing and artificial intelligence infrastructure over the next four years. Microsoft will work with the Malaysian government to enhance its cybersecurity capabilities and provide artificial intelligence training to 200,000 people in the country. Nadella also said Microsoft is committed to providing artificial intelligence skills training to 2.5 million people throughout the region, particularly in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.

Finally, on May 7, Amazon Web Services (AWS) committed $9 billion to expand its cloud infrastructure in Singapore. The investments will go toward building, operating and maintaining data centers in the city-state over the next five years. Like Microsoft, AWS is working with the Singapore government to create a program for 5,000 people a year to expand research and development capabilities.

U.S. technology companies are betting big on the future digital economies of Southeast Asia. In doing so, they will boost regional economies and their own profits. They will also seek to shape rules on data governance and AI as regional governments grapple with the digital future, including competing visions championed by China, Europe and the United States.

ASEAN and Taiwan in the Lai era

The inauguration of new President Lai Ching-te in Taipei and the possible economic and political repercussions in Southeast Asia

By Luca Menghini

On May 20, Lai Ching-te will officially become the new President of Taiwan. This event is significant not only for the island but also for the geopolitical context of the entire Southeast Asia. Taiwan is indeed preparing for a significant change with the inauguration of a leader from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), known for its leanings towards the island's independence from China. Lai secured 40.1% of the votes, surpassing candidates from the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Taiwan People's Party (TPP). Despite the DPP's victory, the party lost control of the legislative assembly, forcing the new president to seek broader consensus which will lead him to moderate his more extreme policies.

The loss of the parliamentary majority could be seen by ASEAN as an element of stability, as it might mitigate Lai's policies, thus reducing tensions in the Taiwan Strait. This area is of vital strategic importance, being a crucial maritime corridor for global trade. ASEAN, which traditionally follows a policy of non-interference and consensus, reacted cautiously to Lai's election. The member countries, located in a region crossed by various trade routes and spheres of influence of major powers, strive to maintain a balance to avoid conflicts. The stability of the strait is essential not only for regional security but also for the global economy.

During the period leading up to the elections, tensions between Taiwan and China grew, especially during the presidency of Tsai Ing-wen, who sought to strengthen ties with the United States. China responded by increasing military and diplomatic pressure on the island, which it considers a rebel province to be reunified in the future. While the reaction of ASEAN and most of its member countries to Lai's election was generally subdued, with most countries avoiding taking strong public positions, the same cannot be said for Filipino President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Marcos was the only leader to break from this line, publicly congratulating Lai and referring to him as president, highlighting the hope for close collaboration and strengthening of mutual interests. This move was not viewed favorably by China, which, claiming Taiwan as part of its territory, does not recognize Lai's title as president. Even more critical was China's reaction to the congratulations extended by the United States through Secretary of State Antony Blinken, accusing the U.S. government of sending "a seriously wrong signal to the separatist forces for Taiwan's independence."

On the economic front, the New Southbound Policy, initiated by former President Tsai Ing-wen starting in 2016, aimed to reduce Taiwan's economic dependence on China, promoting economic cooperation with 18 countries, including ASEAN members, six South Asian states, Australia, and New Zealand. This initiative sought to enhance economic and commercial cooperation, as well as the exchange of talents and resources. However, despite the efforts, reactions have been mixed, also influenced by the caution of various governments trying to avoid irritating China. Taiwan's Minister of Economic Affairs, Wang Mei-hua, indicated that in 2022, investments by Taiwanese companies in Southeast and South Asia surpassed investments in China, reaching $5.2 billion. This increase was driven by trade tensions between the United States and China, but the geopolitical proximity to China continues to represent a significant obstacle for a freer expansion of Taiwan's trade relations.

Now, with the inauguration of Lai, it is expected that Taiwan's commitment to Southeast Asia will continue to increase and even intensify further, with particular attention to cooperation in the high-tech industry. However, the growing influence of China in the region represents an imminent challenge. A recent survey showed that most Southeast Asian countries favor China over the United States. The complex situation will indeed require Lai to carefully balance the promotion of Taiwan's economic interests with the need to navigate the political and diplomatic sensitivities of Southeast Asia.

In conclusion, the inauguration of Lai Ching-te as president of Taiwan represents a significant moment for the island's politics. Faced with the loss of the parliamentary majority and growing tensions with China, Lai will have to navigate an increasingly complex geopolitical context, trying to balance his party's independentist aspirations with the need to maintain stability and peaceful relations in the region. His policies, particularly the strengthening of relations with Southeast Asian countries and beyond, will be crucial for Taiwan's security and economic progress. In this delicate balance, Lai's ability to conduct effective diplomacy and promote sustainable economic growth, while managing external pressures, will define the success of his tenure and potentially influence the regional order of Southeast Asia for the coming years.

The ASEAN-EU Blue Book 2024-2025

The document highlights the strategic partnership between ASEAN and the EU and presents new cooperation programs

ASEAN and the EU launched the ASEAN-EU Blue Book 2024-2025 at the ASEAN headquarters in Jakarta. The Blue Book highlights the strategic partnership between ASEAN and the EU and outlines new cooperation programs under the EU's Global Gateway strategy. The Blue Book testifies to the strong and comprehensive cooperation between ASEAN and the EU with the goal of ensuring regional peace and security, fostering sustainable connectivity, promoting free and fair trade, and promoting sustainable development throughout ASEAN. This year's Blue Book also highlights Team Europe's approach and initiatives on sustainable connectivity and green transition in the ASEAN region. As part of the Global Gateway strategy, the EU has committed to mobilize 10 billion euros of investment by Team Europe for green and connectivity programs in ASEAN. In 47 years of ASEAN-EU relations, we have demonstrated the strength of our strategic partnership and what we can do together in the face of global challenges. This Blue Book provides a comprehensive overview of the multifaceted and deep relationship between our regions and the commitment of our two regions to join forces in pursuit of our common goals,” said H.E. Sujiro Seam, EU Ambassador to ASEAN. The ASEAN-EU Blue Book continues to be a valuable platform to illustrate the EU's significant support for ASEAN community-building efforts, the potential of our strategic partnership, and the progress and key achievements in implementing the ASEAN-EU Action Plan (2023-2027),” said H.E. Dr. Kao Kim Hourn, Secretary-General of ASEAN. Ambassador Hjayceelyn M. Quintana said, “Deepening the strategic partnership between ASEAN and the EU, two of the most advanced and successful regional organizations in the world, could serve as a partnership model for other groupings around the world that contribute to the promotion of international peace, stability and prosperity.”

Highlights of the ASEAN-EU Blue Book 2024-2025 include: 

  1. The ASEAN-EU Commemorative Summit in December 2022 and the 24th ASEAN-EU Ministerial Meeting in February 2024 in Brussels;
  2. The Global Gateway initiative, outlining the EU's €10 billion commitment from Team Europe for green and connectivity projects in ASEAN;
  3. The 5th ASEAN-EU Human Rights Policy Dialogue in October 2023, preceded by the 3rd ASEAN-EU Civil Society Forum and followed by the AICHR-EU study visit to Strasbourg;
  4. EU cooperation priorities and updates on EU-supported projects in key ASEAN sectors;
  5. Compelling stories from the field, illustrating the tangible impact of ASEAN-EU cooperation on the lives of ASEAN citizens.

Here to download the Blue Book

Sustainability means profitability

We publish here an excerpt from Benjamin Soh's analysis for e27

ASEAN countries have consistently achieved high economic growth rates, attributed to careful macroeconomic strategies, open trade and investment policies, and access to export markets from developed countries. A key driver of ASEAN economies is manufacturing supply chains. From 2015 to 2019, manufacturing exports from the ten ASEAN member states grew at an average annual rate of 5 percent, higher than the global average of 3 percent. As governments around the world implement ESG and reporting regulations, ASEAN companies and manufacturers face greater urgency and pressure to adopt sustainable practices to maintain competitiveness in global supply chains. There are significant opportunities to expand their production capabilities and assert their competitiveness in green manufacturing. Globally, regulatory frameworks have evolved rapidly. Under the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, exports to Europe will be subject to a carbon tax on their emissions starting in 2026. Many ASEAN governments have begun to take a phased approach to incorporating the new global sustainability reporting standards, with emissions reporting becoming mandatory under regulatory standards starting in 2025. There is no doubt that sustainability equals long-term profitability. It is time for ASEAN countries to extend their focus and capabilities from manufacturing to green production to maintain competitiveness in the global market. ASEAN countries can benefit from cross-border collaboration to build their green economy and workforce. For example, the Singapore government's Budget 2024 included a phased support approach for businesses on their digitization roadmap, focusing particularly on financial support for training and adoption of digital and digital technologies such as AI. This is an approach that other ASEAN governments can consider emulating to advance ESG initiatives in the region. ASEAN governments may also consider introducing a set of standardized guidelines in relation to ESG reporting to help companies future-proof themselves against the sustainability reporting requirement that will be implemented in 2025. Relevant examples already implemented in the region include the Simplified ESG Disclosure Guide (SEDG) Adopter Program in Malaysia and the Sustainability Report (SuRe) Form in the Philippines.

Who is Lawrence Wong, new Premier of Singapore

After 20 years Singapore is changing Premier. And for the first time, it is not a member of the Lee family

By Francesco Mattogno

On May 15, Singapore will have a new prime minister, the fourth in its history. As has always been the case since the city-state's independence (1965) to the present, the handover will not be due to the result of an election, or a vote of no confidence in parliament. For the third time since it has been in power, that is, since forever, the People's Action Party (PAP) has carefully planned well in advance the leadership change, which will pass into the hands of the “fourth generation” (4G) of party leaders.

Last April 15, the current premier Lee Hsien Loong, who has been in office since 2004, announced that he will leave his post to Wong Shyun Tsai, known to all as Lawrence Wong. Underscoring how everything has been organized down to the last detail, a month in advance we already know the time when the swearing-in ceremony will be held in the presidential palace in Singapore, namely 8 p.m. on May 15, precisely. Wong will thus become the fourth prime minister in the country's history, the second not to be a member of the Lee family.

Lee Hsien Loong is in fact the eldest son of Lee Kuan Yew, who came to power in 1959 and the first premier in the independent history of the Republic of Singapore, which became an autonomous state in 1965 following its split from Malaysia. The PAP has ruled continuously ever since, legitimized by the enormous economic growth of the city-state, which it has transformed over the decades into one of the world's leading financial centers. Singapore holds regular elections, which the PAP has always overwhelmingly won, monopolizing parliament. The next ones are scheduled by November 2025, but could be brought forward.

The change of leadership comes at perhaps the most sensitive time in the PAP's history. Meanwhile, in contrast to what happened during the 1990 handover between Lee Kuan Yew and his successor, Goh Chok Tong, the Lee family's historic hold on the party seems likely to fade in the near future. At that time Goh immediately appointed Lee Hsien Loong as his deputy, making it already clear how he would be the future leader of the PAP and premier of the country, more than a decade in advance.

Today, however, there do not seem to be any Lee heirs on the horizon ready to keep the PAP a family-owned asset for decades to come. This will make Wong the first premier to have no explicit connections to the Lees, although it is likely that, at least for the next few years, Lee Hsien Loong will continue to exert his influence over the PAP and thus the country.

Also complicit in this situation, the party has begun to show signs of fragility. Wong was not the first choice for the leadership change. Before him in 2018 was designated Heng Swee Keat, who was supposed to take Lee's place as early as a few years ago. The outbreak of the Covid pandemic led the PAP to postpone the transition, whose stability was then challenged by the 2020 elections, in which the party won “only” 83 of the 93 elective seats, one of the worst results in its history. The relatively modest outcome of the vote convinced Heng to step aside.

Instead, the pandemic proved to be an opportunity, for Wong. A former finance minister and deputy prime minister, Wong was noted for the good work he did as co-chair of the task force set up by the government to handle the emergency caused by Covid. In 2022, the PAP leadership then appointed him leader of 4G and de facto successor to Lee, but not unanimously (15 in favor out of 19), denoting at least a slight internal fragmentation. To this must be added the scandals that in recent months have technically led to the resignation, in practice the removal, of parliament speaker Tan Chuan-Jin (over an extramarital affair with a female MP) and Transport Minister Subramaniam Iswaran, who was accused of corruption (we reported on them here).

The two affairs caused a stir, undermining the image of integrity and fairness that the PAP has built up over the decades and contributing to the strengthening of the opposition, led by the Workers' Party (WP). The party's 4G members thus do not enjoy the same level of adulation shown by Singaporeans toward previous leaders (there is already no shortage of nostalgics and hagiographies of Lee Hsien Loong).

Wong will have to deal with this and a domestic situation that is not the best. Although Singapore's per-capita income remains among the highest in the world ($80,000 in 2022), income inequality between the upper and lower segments of the population is increasing, as is the cost of living. This is leading Singaporeans to have fewer and fewer children or leave the city-state, while the country's perception as a stable financial center is being eroded by increasing corruption and “dirty” money laundering. The various international crises are also challenging the international order that has allowed Singapore to thrive in recent decades.

The global role of the Philippines

Philippines’ new geopolitical stance post Marcos-Biden-Kishida summit: a shift from Duterte’s policy and its ASEAN implications

By Luca Menghini

The historic trilateral summit in Washington, attended by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., U.S. President Joe Biden, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, marked a radical shift in the Philippines' foreign policy stance. This shift not only redefines Manila's international relations but also has broader implications for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

During the previous administration of President Rodrigo Duterte, the Philippines tended to pursue closer ties with China, adopting a submissive tone in territorial disputes in the South China Sea in favor of economic incentives. This approach was often criticized for compromising the country's national sovereignty in exchange for economic returns. Indeed, the Duterte administration prioritized Chinese investments in infrastructure over a more robust defense of established maritime boundaries. However, it now seems clear that this policy has been abandoned by the new President Marcos Jr., who is prioritizing territorial defense.

The trilateral summit represents a clear shift from Duterte's previous China-centric policies, binding the Philippines militarily and strategically to Japan and the United States. This change in course is a clear response to the current concerns regarding Chinese actions increasingly threatening the country's territorial integrity. With this agreement, the Philippines aims to increase its maritime defenses and secure support in the event of a regional conflict.

This reorientation is profound and not only enhances the Philippines' security infrastructure but also deepens and enhances economic and technological synergies with two of the world's largest economies. The summit discussion covered various aspects ranging from cost guard cooperation to defense, cybersecurity to critical minerals, and energy, setting the stage for a diversification of investments in the Philippines beyond traditional sectors.

Marcos Jr.'s strategy reflects a deep understanding of the region's geopolitical scenario. While economic ties with China are important, they cannot be secondary to national security and territorial sovereignty. This act aimed at balancing the situation is crucial, especially given the Philippines' strategic position in the South China Sea, which has increasingly become a crucial route witnessing a growing increase in maneuvers by the Chinese navy.

The implications of this strategic change are being reflected not only on the individual country but also on ASEAN as a whole. ASEAN, known for being a regional block that aims for consensus and non-interference, faces challenges in maintaining unity in the face of the approaches that individual member countries are taking towards China and the United States. The new position of the Philippines could potentially influence other member states to reassess their positioning, either moving towards greater cooperation with Western allies or strengthening their independent positions to avoid direct confrontation with China.

Furthermore, the shift in Manila's positioning is destined to influence ASEAN's collective positioning towards China. Traditionally, ASEAN has always adopted a cautious stance towards Beijing, given its economic and military power. However, with the Philippines ready to openly align themselves towards a firmer stance against the Asian superpower, other ASEAN countries may feel more encouraged or facilitated to take a more assertive position in advancing their maritime rights, potentially leading to a reconfiguration of regional dynamics.

From an economic perspective, the Philippines' alignment with the United States and Japan could lead to an increase in American and Japanese investments in the region, which would balance the massive investments and Chinese influence exerted through the Belt and Road Initiative. This could lead to a more diversified investment landscape for ASEAN countries, reducing dependence on China and potentially also reducing the risk associated with geopolitical tensions.

The diversification of investment sources could have the effect of stimulating economic growth in sectors such as technology, renewable resources, and advanced manufacturing, offering new opportunities for economic development within ASEAN. Such a change could increase the bargaining power of the bloc in international negotiations, thereby promoting a more equitable distribution of economic benefits among its members.

In conclusion, the strategic shift of the Philippines following the trilateral summit with Japan and the US represents a significant change in the geopolitical chessboard of Southeast Asia. This move, diverging substantially from the predecessors of Marcos Jr., highlights the complexity of regional security in ASEAN and how actors must move to be independent, even from an economic point of view. As the Philippines strengthens its ties with Western powers, the implications for ASEAN could include a more ambivalent positioning towards global superpowers. How ASEAN navigates these changing tides will be crucial for the stability and prosperity of the region in the coming years.

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