Thailand

Redazione published in Global Lens, Malaysia, Thailand

Thailand and Malaysia in front row for BRICS

Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur are the first two Southeast Asian governments to have expressed interest in joining the group

Di Silvia Zaccaria

The acronym BRICS refers to the grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. In January 2024, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates joined the BRICS. The five original member countries alone make up about 26 percent of the earth's land area, 30 percent of the global economy and 43 percent of the global population, a figure that continues to grow. Just as the BRICS have among their purposes the goal of bringing together the economies of the Global South, ASEAN was also established as an organization created for the purpose of contributing to the economic, social and cultural development of the countries of Southeast Asia, ensuring their stability, fostering their economic promotion, reducing poverty, and encouraging the exchange and support of countries with profoundly different economic and development levels. By virtue of the increasing economic and political importance the BRICS are gaining, many ASEAN members have expressed more or less concrete interest in their possible entry into the grouping, as early as the 2023 summit in Johannesburg. On May 28, Thailand approved a letter officially manifesting its intention to join BRICS. Ready to follow is Malaysia, whose Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has expressed strong interest in possible entry. Indonesia, which participated as a guest at the 2023 BRICS Summit, through Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi, also said it is in the process of evaluating the possible benefits of joining the group. Finally, Vietnam also asserted that the country is seriously considering joining BRICS. In particular, it was pointed out that countries such as Thailand and Malaysia are aiming for BRICS entry for economic and social growth intentions of national interest. “BRICS membership would benefit Thailand in many ways, for example, by increasing Thailand's role in the international arena and enhancing its prospects of being one of the international economic policymakers.”, said Bangkok’s government.

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Redazione published in Politics and strategy, Thailand

Thailand has a new premier

Paetongtarn Shinawatra has been named prime minister of Southeast Asia's second-largest economy, the youngest ever

“I am honored. I talked with my family and the people of Pheu Thai. And I decided it's time to do something for the country and the party, I will give my best to be able to move Thailand forward.” On Friday, August 16, a visibly excited Paetongtarn Shinawatra delivered her first words as Premier of Thailand. Minutes earlier, Parliament in Bangkok appointed her with 319 votes in favor, 145 against, and 27 abstentions. She takes over from Srettha Thavisin, her party colleague who had been removed from office a few days earlier by a Constitutional Court ruling triggered by the appointment as minister of a former lawyer who had previously been sentenced to six months in prison for corruption.

Born on August 21, 1986, Paetongtarn thus becomes with her just 38 years old the youngest-ever government leader for Southeast Asia's second largest economy. Paetongtarn is the daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, Prime Minister from 2001 to 2006 who returned last year from a long exile abroad, and granddaughter of Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin's sister and herself Premier from 2011 to 2014. As a child, she followed her father as he campaigned and played golf. She majored in political science at Chulalongkorn University, one of Thailand's top schools. She then studied international hotel management at the University of Surrey in England.

The new Thai government leader then returned home to help run the family business empire. She entered politics in 2021 and had never held a government position before her appointment last Aug. 16. During last year's election campaign, she gained popularity by holding rallies despite being pregnant. After the polls, she dialogued with Move Forward, the winning party that first remained in opposition and whose dissolution was later ordered by the Constitutional Court in early August.

Paetongtarn's real challenge will be to sustain the revitalization of the economy, including deciding on the fate of the digital wallet program that Srettha Thavisin had launched in recent months. “If we all stick together we can do it, I will give my all to further improve the lives of Thais,” promised the new, young Premier.

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Redazione published in Culture and society, Thailand

Historic step: Thailand legalizes egalitarian marriage

Moment to remember for Bangkok, which approves legislation legalizing same-sex marriage

By Alice Freguglia

On June 18, 2024, rainbow flags will fly in Thailand, which has become the first Southeast Asian country ready to legalize same-sex marriage. A decisive step forward for LGBTQ+ rights, driven by strong ideals of equality and inclusion, promoted by the Pheu Thai Party and Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin himself. 130 out of 134, in fact, were the affirmative votes enunciated by the Senate, for which, now, the law will await the consent pronounced by King Maha Vajiralongkorn, considered, however, a mere formality. 

Although Thailand is celebrated for its vibrant LGBTQ+ culture and general tolerance, activists have long criticized the country's conservative attitudes and legal framework, especially with regard to the recognition of transgender and nonbinary people, who are still prevented from changing their gender on identification documents. Indeed, over the past decade, there have been several attempts by the government to legalize same-sex unions, epitomized in the last presidential election in 2023 with the victory of the Pheu Thai Party, which proposed the legalization of egalitarian marriages in its election manifesto, gaining support especially among younger voters.

Recently passed legislation redefines marriage as a union between two individuals, eliminating gender-specific terms such as "men," "women," "husbands," and "wives" in favor of gender-neutral language. As a result, this change gives LGBTQ+ couples the same legal rights as heterosexual couples, including inheritance and adoption rights. Plaifah Kyoka Shodladd himself, a member of the Parliamentary Committee on Same-Sex Marriage, expressed pride in the achievement, noting that "love has triumphed over prejudice" after decades of struggle.

Following the recent developments, Thailand joins Nepal and Taiwan as the only jurisdictions in Asia to have legalized same-sex marriage. Specifically, in that part of the world where rights in regard to LGBTQ+ people are often repressed, such as Southeast Asia, Thailand represents a source of change and inclusiveness. Indeed, in Myanmar and Brunei, same-sex relationships are still considered a punishable crime, while discrimination and hostility are recurrent in Indonesia and Malaysia. Chanatip Tatiyakaroonwong, Amnesty International's researcher in Thailand, described it as a historic step and a reward for the tireless efforts of activists, civil society organizations and supportive lawmakers. 

The new law promises to transform the lives of countless couples and promote a more just and equitable society. As Thailand celebrates this milestone, it also sets a precedent that could positively affect change throughout the region, proving that equality and love can indeed triumph over prejudice and discrimination.

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Redazione published in Global Lens, Thailand

Thailand seeks entry into BRICS

The Bangkok government has decided to join the growing group led by emerging economies

Southeast Asia is poised to make its official entry into BRICS. On May 28, the Thai government approved the submission of a letter of intent to join the multilateral platform led by emerging economies. If the request is approved, as all indications suggest, Thailand will become the first member of the group from the ASEAN region. BRICS initially consisted of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, but as of Jan. 1, 2024, five more countries joined: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. Thailand is currently included in the list of 15 countries that will soon be considered for admission. The decision made by Bangkok is expected to speed up the process ahead of the next summit, scheduled for October in Kazan, Russia. “BRICS membership will strengthen Thailand's role as a leader among developing countries,” said Chai Wacharonke, government spokesman, at a press conference organized to announce the formal step. The letter outlines dozens of benefits for Bangkok in joining BRICS, one of which is the possibility of collaborating with other countries in the global South to strengthen its presence on the world stage. Thailand, moreover, is trying to frame its foreign policy moves as part of a broader proactive diplomatic approach that emphasizes involvement with institutions such as BRICS and the OECD. Not so much as a balancing act between great powers, but to promote its own economic interests and cultivate ties with a wider circle of developed and developing countries. The Thai initiative is an interesting sign because it shows the dynamism of the so-called “Global South,” with emerging countries committed to strengthening various multilateral platforms. Indeed, as Bangkok formalizes its intention to join the BRICS, Indonesia is taking similarly decisive steps toward joining the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Indonesia, already a member of the G20 representing ASEAN, is the first Southeast Asian country to formally request to discuss membership. In recent days, Mathias Cormann, secretary of the OECD, visited Jakarta to speed up the process designed to bring the country's status to that of full membership. Cormann met with outgoing President Joko Widodo to discuss next steps. Jakarta aims to achieve full membership within three years.

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Redazione published in Global Lens, Thailand

New horizons of cooperation between Italy and Thailand

The balance of Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin's visit to Rome

By Alice Freguglia

May 21, 2024 Palazzo Chigi hosted Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, who was visiting Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Infrastructure, digitization, energy and tourism promotion were the topics most discussed by the two leaders, with a view to promoting bilateral relations in favor of greater socio-political cohesion and with the goal of ensuring the full development of both countries.

As early as last year, in 2023, on the occasion of the 155th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Italy and Thailand, the Chambers of Commerce of both nations signed a memorandum of understanding, promoted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation and Unioncamere, which further strengthened economic and trade ties, as well as underscored Thailand's importance as a partner. With a young and constantly growing population, in fact, the Thai territory would really represent an important resource for the Italian economy, able to offer significant opportunities for businesses, as also stressed by Andrea Prete himself, President of Unioncamere.

Thailand, in fact, as the political heart of ASEAN, represents a natural entry point for Italian companies wishing to access the markets of Southeast Asia, an area that, in addition to encompassing more than 600 million people, has an interesting market potential. Remarkable, in fact, is the volume of Rome-Bangkok trade, which in 2023 reached a value of about 4 billion euros, with Italian exports of 1.9 billion and imports of more than 2.1, representing an allied and reliable market, a source of economic and political stability.

“We intend to discuss cooperation with ltaly, whether it is trade and investment, agriculture, fashion or renewable energy. As well as tourism. In fact, more than 190,000 Italians come to Thailand every year.” These were the Thai leader's words, a prelude to a meeting later described as 'satisfactory' by Giorgia Meloni, in which ItaIy promoted and strengthened its international relations with its partner.

Expanding and improving travel within the territory, in fact, is one of the key domestic policy objectives for Thailand, and what better example to take inspiration from than Italy? Our country, in fact, boasts some of the world's most prominent and recognized companies in terms of quality and innovation. The Made in Italy stamp, in fact, can be placed on countless large-scale projects, such as the high-speed rail network, but also on the construction and management of civil works such as bridges, roads, ports and airports.

Similarly, recent initiatives such as the PNRR, National Recovery and Resilience Plan, focused on the implementation of major investments to ensure greater digitization of public administration and to support Italian industries, is also an exemplary imprinting for Thailand, which, in its own way, with the implementation of the so-called 'Thailand 4.0' plan aims to achieve an economy based on innovation and technology.

The environment will also be positively affected by this strengthening of Italian-Thai relations. In particular, Italy's experience in renewable energy would represent significant 'know how' for Thailand, which could not only take a cue from the technologies adopted to cope with the global warming emergency, but also rely on valuable investments that would allow it to make the most of its natural potential.

If there is anything, however, that unites these two seemingly distant realities, it is, surely, the beauty that attracts millions and millions of tourists each year, lovers of both pizza and pad thai. Strengthening trade relations, in fact, will also be able to ensure a greater influx of guests and visitors to both territories, a very important economic source, especially for two countries that from the historical, naturalistic and monumental point of view, have much to offer to the eyes of those who look at them with curiosity and a desire to broaden their horizons.

Srettha Thavisin, moreover, would seem to have convinced Giorgia Meloni regarding Thailand's desire to join the OECD, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Founded in 1961, the OECD provides a platform for governments to discuss and coordinate economic and social policies.Member states collaborate on issues such as economic growth, employment, education, innovation and trade, with the goal of creating a stronger and more sustainable global economy. Joining, therefore, would greatly elevate the country's status, allowing Thailand to gain international recognition and benefit from a socioeconomic knowledge exchange that would enable it to promote better political dialogue and economic cooperation.

In this regard, moreover, it would appear that Giorgia Meloni has accepted an invitation from Prime Minister Thavisin to visit Thailand, a significant step forward in bilateral cooperation between the two countries, as well as a confirmation of Italy's commitment inI'paving the way for further discussions and collaboration on strategic issues.

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Redazione published in Politics and strategy, Thailand

Thailand changes its mind on cannabis

Two years after decriminalization, Thailand may re-list cannabis as a narcotic, dismantling a potentially billion-dollar industry

By Francesco Mattogno

The decriminalization of low-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) cannabis use, made official on June 9, 2022, is undoubtedly among the many contradictions that characterize Thailand. The political context in which Bangkok decided two years ago to ease its crackdown on marijuana, turning Thailand into the first Asian state to allow its recreational use, was that of Prayut Chan-o-cha's government, with a strong military component and a number of civil parties. The largest of these was the Bhumjaithai (BJT) of the then deputy prime minister and minister of health, Anutin Charnvirakul, who was among the biggest supporters of marijuana decriminalization in Thailand.

After promising this in the election campaign, in the summer of 2022 Anutin managed to convince allies and win a large majority in parliament to bring about the removal of low-THC cannabis from the list of narcotic substances. A victory that, just under two years later, could be wiped out by a new government, this time with civilian traction, of which he himself is deputy prime minister and interior minister. 

Through a post on X, Thailand's prime minister, Srettha Thavisin, announced on May 8 that he would reinstate low-THC marijuana to the list of narcotic drugs. Cannabis would not be considered a hard drug like heroin or cocaine, but it would again become illegal to grow, sell and possess, with penalties of up to 15 years in prison. Srettha and his party, Pheu Thai, had promised to crack down on marijuana use back in the election campaign, and so had all the major parties, including the progressive Move Forward and to some extent Anutin's BJT, which claimed to want to strengthen its regulation.

According to what was announced, the medical use of cannabis will remain legal and the crackdown will be limited to recreational consumption, that is, the real object of what Srettha called to be a “war on drugs,” which also includes measures against other substances, far more dangerous than marijuana. Technically, the 2022 decriminalization came as a result of a Ministry of Health order that merely included hemp within the “controlled herbs”-this was not an actual law, and that turned out to be its biggest problem.

Beyond some minimal guidelines (such as the need for a cultivation license, a ban on smoking in public or sales to minors under the age of 20), recreational use of cannabis was never really regulated, and only became tolerable as a result of a regulatory vacuum. A vacuum also due to the fact that, in the months following decriminalization, parliament changed its mind on the issue, not allowing the various drafts submitted by Anutin to become law. A law would have strengthened the controls and regulatory soundness of legalized cannabis use, which would have been more difficult to overturn today.

As the parties squabbled over the issue, later shelved as the campaign for the May 2023 elections began, in two years some 8,000 stores have sprung up across the country to sell inflorescences, oils or other hemp products to the public, and more than 1 million Thais have applied for and obtained licenses to grow. Although it is theoretically only legal to sell marijuana with a THC content of less than 0.2 percent (similar to “cannabis light” in Italy), the lack of a law has also made it possible to trade cannabis at a normal level of THC, which is the active ingredient that makes weed consumption psychotropic. However, inflorescences with a very low percentage of THC have no altering effect. To speak of a “war on drugs” would therefore be not entirely appropriate in this case.

This is also claimed by several Thai associations in support of cannabis legalization, which have asked the government to bring in scientific evidence to support that marijuana is more harmful than alcohol and cigarettes. Two years after decriminalization, the industry of growing and selling hemp products has now established itself as a major player within the Thai economic system-a ban would bring thousands of small business owners and workers to their knees.

According to estimates, the industry could grow to be worth $1.2 billion in 2025, to over $9 billion by 2030. The “war on drugs” would risk handing this huge market back into the hands of organized crime, but Srettha does not seem inclined to turn back. The prime minister has told his new health minister, Somsak Thepsutin, that he has 90 days to present progress on the issue. With the exception of medical uses, consuming cannabis in Thailand could become illegal again by the end of 2024.

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Redazione published in Global Lens, Thailand

Thailand's Landbridge will bring East and West closer

We publish here an excerpt of the speech by the Prime Minister of Thailand Srettha Thavisin on the Landbridge project

Thailand's Landbridge mega infrastructure project is an effort towards creating seamless connectivity to boost long-term growth prospects in the region and is fully in line with my Government's proactive economic diplomacy.

The project will include the construction of deep-sea ports in Ranong, on Thailand's Andaman coast, and Chumphon, in the Gulf of Thailand. Located approximately 90 kilometers apart, the two ports will operate under the “one port, two sides” concept, supported by a highway and double-track railway lines to connect the ports with each other and with the country's national network.

Each port will have the capacity to handle up to 20 million standard containers per year. The plan also includes the installation of a network of oil and gas pipelines. The total estimated cost is 1 trillion baht ($28 billion).

The Landbridge project represents an unprecedented opportunity to improve connectivity between the Pacific and Indian Oceans and to link economic activity between the two regions.

It promises to facilitate greater movement of goods and people between East and West, offering a viable route for maritime trade beyond the Straits of Malacca.

Once completed, the Landbridge is expected to reduce travel times by an average of four days between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific and reduce transportation costs by 15%. For a company shipping goods from Chennai to Yokohama, for example, this could mean savings of up to five days and 4% on costs.

Those familiar with Thailand's logistical development might see the Landbridge as a modern reworking of a century-old proposal to dredge a canal across the Kra Isthmus.

Although it was originally approved in 1989 as part of Thailand's Southern Economic Corridor, various considerations have left this project unrealized to this day. Now the timing will align well with the growth prospects of the economies of the Indian subcontinent and Africa.

Plans call for the first phase of construction to begin in September 2025 and last until October 2030. Contractors will likely be able to bid on the project between April and June 2025.

The Landbridge is expected to bring benefits of 1.3 trillion baht to the Thai economy and increase the country's annual gross domestic product growth rate by 1.5% through increased export opportunities and the creation of 280,000 jobs . It will also bring new development opportunities for other provinces in southern Thailand.

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Redazione published in Economy and trade, Thailand

Il successo spaziale della Thailandia

Grazie al costo relativamente basso della manodopera, il Paese è un candidato interessante per la produzione avanzata nel settore spaziale

By Tommaso Magrini

Il satellite thailandese in orbita terrestre bassa, Theos-2, è stato lanciato con successo lo scorso 9 ottobre dal Centro spaziale della Guyana. Il satellite di osservazione della Terra Theos-2 è stato sviluppato congiuntamente dall’Agenzia per lo sviluppo della geoinformatica e della tecnologia spaziale (GISTDA) e Airbus per registrare immagini dallo spazio, proseguendo la missione di Theos-1, lanciato nel 2008. Ci vorranno ancora alcune settimane per controllare i vari sistemi del satellite, compresa la capacità di fotografare, prima che possa iniziare la sua missione. Theos-2 può scattare immagini ad alta risoluzione fino a 50 centimetri e scansionare circa 74.000 chilometri quadrati al giorno. Le agenzie spaziali thailandesi stanno inoltre lavorando per sviluppare un satellite al 100% di produzione autoctona, chiamato “Theos-3”. Sì, perché il programma spaziale di Bangkok procede a grande ritmo. La Thailandia è sede di una produzione avanzata di componenti per veicoli e di una serie di prodotti elettronici. Grazie al costo relativamente basso della manodopera, il Paese è un candidato interessante per la produzione avanzata in generale. Di conseguenza, il GISTDA ha spinto per sviluppare un centro di assemblaggio, integrazione e test satellitare nel Paese, sfruttando questi punti di forza.All’inizio di quest’anno, la Thailandia e la Corea del Sud hanno annunciato l’intenzione di effettuare uno studio di fattibilità congiunto per un sito di lancio. Un giorno potremmo vedere i razzi partire dal Paese del sorriso. La Thailandia non è l’unico Paese del Sud-Est asiatico a condurre un ambizioso programma spaziale. L’Indonesia è stata un pioniere delle comunicazioni satellitari tra i Paesi dell’Asia-Pacifico, avendo lanciato il suo primo satellite Palapa a metà degli anni Settanta. Negli ultimi anni, però, gli indonesiani hanno superato loro stessi: il programma BAKTI, gestito dal Ministero delle Telecomunicazioni (KOMINFO), ha l’ambizione di collegare circa 150.000 siti alla banda larga satellitare nei prossimi anni. 

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Redazione published in Culture and society, Thailand

Thailand moves closer to LGBTQ+ marriage

Thailand's new PM pushes in the direction of legalizing same-sex marriage. It would be the first Southeast Asian country to give the green light

By Tommaso Magrini

Thailand could become the first Southeast Asian country to legalize same-sex marriage. The green light was one of the issues on the agenda of Move Forward, the party that was victorious in last May's elections but has since remained out of government. It is an issue that has now been picked up by the Pheu Thai party's new Prime Minister, Srettha Thavisin. The PM relaunched the initiative in October, with her government preparing three bills for marriage equality, sex change, and decriminalization of prostitution. 

The Thai prime minister has "stressed that this is a very urgent matter," giving the relevant ministries a few weeks to hold public hearings on the bill and forward it to parliament, government spokesman Chai Watcharong said on Oct. 31. The bill will be debated in the upcoming parliamentary session in December, while the Pheu Thai-led coalition government is under pressure to deliver as it approaches the 100-day mark and must show that it has at least partially fulfilled key campaign promises, such as the $280 handout to Thai citizens.

Last year, the previous House of Representatives passed on first reading a marriage equality bill proposed by Move Forward, as well as a competing bill enshrining same-sex civil unions proposed by the conservative government of former Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha. But neither bill moved forward before Parliament was dissolved for the May general election.

Supporters expect the Srettha government's proposal to be similar to the Move Forward bill in order to win the votes of the largest opposition party. The proposal would amend Thailand's Civil and Commercial Code, changing gendered words such as "husband" and "wife" to "spouse," while "man" and "woman" would change to "individual." Prachachat, a coalition party led by Pheu Thai and whose base is in the country's Muslim Deep South, has called for religious exemptions, such as exempting Muslim clerics and Christian priests from performing same-sex marriages. Srettha also supported Bangkok's bid to host the 2028 WorldPride, a biennial international event that would help boost tourism and consumption revenues in Thailand.

Meanwhile, the proposed Gender Recognition Bill would allow transgender Thais to change their official sex, which is currently not possible, even though the country has become a hub for sex reassignment surgeries. Opponents have said that allowing official sex change would give men a way out of military conscription, a concern that may be outweighed by the fact that the Pheu Thai government plans to switch to voluntary enlistment. 

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Redazione published in Economy and trade, Thailand

Mega redevelopment in Bangkok

More than 20 large-scale projects are planned in Bangkok with openings scheduled by 2027, totaling 500 billion baht of investment

Article by Tommaso Magrini

Bangkok is ready for a wave of renovation projects totalling more than $14 billion, supported by some of the country’s leading conglomerates. The aim is to transform the Thai capital into a destination that rivals Singapore. A mammoth development is underway on prime real estate opposite Lumpini Park in central Bangkok, led by the conglomerate TCC Group. One Bangkok will be one of the largest private sector projects in the country, with a value of 120 million baht. According to plans, the 167,000-square-meter area will host five office towers, residential skyscrapers, retail space and a concert hall and a Ritz-Carlton Hotel. TCC’s activity includes the brewer Chang Thai Beverage and real estate. The project will be a magnet for world-class businessmen, investors and tourists from all over the world , growing their will to come to Bangkok. Charoen Pokphand, one of Thailand's leading conglomerates, is working on a mega- project in Samut Prakan, on the outskirts of Bangkok, putting emphasis on sustainability. The Forestias will consist of commercial spaces, a hotel and residential areas, The operator of this 125 billion baht-wellness-oriented project has involved the Japanese Sumimoto Mitsui Trust Bank as an investor. According to data released by Nikkei, more than 20 large-scale projects are planned in Bangkok with opening schedules by 2027, totalling 500 billion baht of investments. Large projects of incomparable scale are being planned, becoming in this way Bangkok’s ‘landmark’. These renovation projects make sustainability a strong point. Many multinationals see the Thai capital as a great opportunity.

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Redazione published in Politics and strategy, Thailand

Thailand, who is the new PM Srettha Thavisin?

After a prolonged period of political uncertainty, Thailand has its new prime minister: Srettha Thavisin, a former U.S.-educated real estate tycoon who has always been close to the Shinawatra family. He is the epitome of a government that unites Pheu Thai, conservatives and the military

By Francesco Mattogno

One hundred days after the May 14 elections, Thailand has elected its new prime minister. With 482 votes in favor (including 152 senators), 165 against, and 81 abstentions, in the joint House and Senate vote on August 22 Pheu Thai candidate Srettha Thavisin passed the necessary threshold of 374 seats and became the 30th premier in Thai history.

His nomination was approved by King Maha Vajiralongkorn, who thus made the outcome of the parliamentary vote official and paved the way for the formation of the new government. Which will not be a "change" government. Or at least not of the change voted for by the relative majority of Thais, who at the polls had awarded Move Forward, the country's most progressive and radical political formation, as the party with the most seats in the lower house (151).

Instead, Pheu Thai, which came second in the elections (141 seats), will lead the new executive. In a turn that was as abrupt as it was announced, in early August the party founded by Thaksin Shinawatra abandoned its coalition project with Move Forward and initiated a series of negotiations to form an alliance with political forces linked to the conservative and pro-military establishment.

The successful outcome of the talks resulted in an 11-party, 314-seat coalition encompassing much of the outgoing government led by former coup general Prayut Chan-o-cha, with the exception of the Democratic Party. In fact, the alliance that supported Srettha includes the Bhumjaithai (BJT) of former Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who may become the next interior minister, and the military's two parties, the Palang Pracharat (PPRP) of the other coup general Prawit Wongsuwon and the United Thai Nation (UTN) of outgoing premier Prayut, who has, however, announced that he plans to retire from politics.

In fact, Pheu Thai has struck deals with what until last May 14 were its bitterest enemies. Over the past two decades, the Shinawatra party has been ousted from power twice by army coups (2006 and 2014), and its leaders have been convicted of corruption and abuse of power by military-linked courts. The BJT, on the other hand, came into being in 2008 after an internal split within Pheu Thai, and has since become a symbol of betrayal and affiliation with conservative power for Reds supporters. Moreover, 16 out of 25 MPs from the same Democratic Party, once Shinawatra's number one opponent and now in the midst of a crisis, voted in favor of Srettha's nomination, contravening the party's line of abstention.

This is a reversal of what was promised before the election. At the height of the election campaign, Srettha-as well as all the Pheu Thai leadership-had ruled out an alliance with the military. Instead, on Monday, before the vote, he asked Thais to "forget" those words for Thailand's sake. Pheu Thai claims it had no alternative, since the Senate (appointed by the military) would have prevented any coalition including Move Forward from governing. To form an executive, therefore, one had to surrender to compromise with conservative forces in the name of "national reconciliation." And so it did.

Despite skepticism, the new prime minister pledged that the coalition would abide by Pheu Thai's electoral program, which made the economy a "priority" to go along with more progressive and democratic policies, such as amending the constitution and ending compulsory conscription.

Srettha is the main promoter of the "digital wallet," a 10,000 baht (270 euros) subsidy promised by his party to everyone over the age of 16, which would be in addition to an increase in the minimum wage. He said in the election campaign that he would push to expand Thailand's export markets in Africa and the Middle East and to forge more free trade agreements (above all, the one with the European Union), saying he also opposed decoupling between China and the United States. "I don't believe in working with individual nations," he said in an interview with the Nikkei.

A member of a well-connected family within the Thai elite, Srettha studied economics and finance in the United States (he graduated from the University of Massachusetts and took a master's degree at the Claremont Graduate School in California), and once he returned to Thailand in the 1990s he became chairman of Sansiri, a family business that became one of the largest companies in the Thai real estate industry. In contrast to many of his fellow entrepreneurs, Srettha has often exposed himself politically on social media and beyond, becoming one of the trusted men of former premiers Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatra. In November last year, he finally joined Pheu Thai, stepping down as CEO of Sansiri two months before the elections.

Amid the prolonged political crisis, the country's GDP grew only 1.8 percent in the second quarter of 2023, well below expectations. Therefore, according to Bloomberg, given his business career and promises to stimulate the Thai economy through public spending, investors should welcome Srettha's appointment as premier. And there is talk of his possible dual role as finance minister as well. Different is the talk on the purely political level. The new prime minister has no political experience, nor a strong support base both within the party and in the electorate. And this is no small detail for a premier who will have to hold up a potentially very fragile and unpopular coalition (a poll of a sample of 1,310 citizens recorded about 63 percent disapproval).

Despite the decent result at the polls, for the first time in 20 years Pheu Thai did not win the election. This makes Srettha a much weaker prime minister than his predecessors elected with the Shinawatra party, who came to the seat with huge popular mandates and were surrounded by a kind of aura of invincibility. And in a further threat to his legitimacy, Srettha has been accused of tax evasion and malpractices during his time at Sansiri. The new premier will thus have to prove that he can control a government in which Pheu Thai, despite being the largest party in the coalition, is actually outnumbered by potential deals between BJT, PPRP and UTN, which together have 147 seats. One wonders then how well Srettha will be able to implement the promised policies, and whether moving behind him may be a far more navigated figure like Thaksin, moreover, who has just returned from exile.

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Redazione published in Politics and strategy, Thailand

Thailand, the scenarios for the new government

As expected, Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat failed to win enough senatorial votes to be named prime minister. For Thailand, a phase of great political uncertainty begins. Parliament goes back to vote on July 19: here are the scenarios for the formation of the new government

Article by Francesco Mattogno

64 votes were needed, 13 came in. The first joint session of the Thai parliament to vote for a new prime minister closed Thursday night without the nomination of the only candidate in the running, Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat. This was no surprise.

After winning the May elections, Move Forward formed a coalition of eight parties, grouping a total of 312 seats: more than enough to have a majority in the lower house of 500 MPs, but too few to elect the new government without the influence of the Senate. Until May 2024, in fact, the 250 senators appointed by the military have the constitutional power to participate in voting to appoint the prime minister, who then needs at least 376 votes to be elected (which became 375 on Wednesday following the resignation of a senator). A huge obstacle for those proposing to shake up the pro-monarchist, pro-conservative status quo that those same senators have been charged with protecting.

The parliamentary session

Beyond token optimism, it was clear from the eve of the vote that Pita would not have the numbers to leave the chamber as Thailand's 30th premier. Before the vote, parliamentarians were given about six hours for debate. The Move Forward-led coalition remained united and put forward Pita as its sole prime ministerial candidate, while the pro-conservative front parties did not put forward any aspirants for the role. The result was a single-issue session.

All the speeches focused on the legitimacy of Pita and his party to govern, with the Move Forward's willingness to amend the law on lese majesty, a proposal that conservative deputies and senators have repeatedly deemed dangerous to the country's stability, at the center. Another central issue in the opposition to the Orange leader has been the legal proceedings hanging over him. On Wednesday, the day before the vote, the Election Commission of Thailand asked the constitutional court to disqualify Pita as an MP, accusing him of having been aware of his ineligibility due to owning shares in the media company ITV (the constitution in such cases prohibits him from running for office).

According to the Move Forward member, this is a specious accusation--ITV has not operated since 2007--but in the meantime, the constitutional court could suspend him from parliament pending final judgment, which could also include his disqualification from political activity and a sentence of one to three years in prison. The court also accepted another case seeking the dissolution of Move Forward because of the party's intention to amend the law on lese majesty. Pita denounced the suspicious timing of the two proceedings, which provided an assist to senators to legitimize their refusal to vote for a suspect as prime minister.

The day ended with 324 votes in favor of Pita's nomination, 182 against, 199 abstentions. Those in favor included 311 coalition deputies (House Speaker Wan Muhammad Noor Matha abstained as usual) and 13 senators. More than 40 members of the Senate, however, did not show up in the chamber.

The main scenarios

On a formal level, there is no upper limit on the number of votes parliament can hold to appoint the prime minister. The next joint session has been set for July 19, and it is expected that a possible third session could be held as early as the 20th. On the political level, things are different. "I'm not giving up," Pita said on the sidelines of the vote. But the support he enjoys from coalition partners may be timed. Some members of Pheu Thai, the alliance's second-largest formation, said the party would support him for three votes, but then would have to think of an alternative path.

There are essentially four possible scenarios. The first envisions that -- net of legal proceedings -- the Move Forward leader will be able to find the 64 votes needed to be named premier. MPs from Bhumjaithai, the third largest party in the House (71 seats), have said they would vote for him should his party abandon the plan to amend the law on lese majesty. Which Move Forward has categorically denied. The second is to thus maintain the coalition but have Srettha Thavisin, a Pheu Thai candidate deemed more acceptable even than Paetongtarn Shinawatra herself, daughter of the party founder, elected as prime minister. However, there are those who argue that the establishment is unlikely to accept Move Forward even being part of the governing coalition.

There is thus the possibility of "betrayal." Pheu Thai could leave the coalition and form a government with conservative and pro-military forces, a choice that could have consequences both in terms of popular support for the party and law and order. It is believed that in the event of Move Forward's ouster from the executive, a series of mass protests by its supporters could be triggered. Very likely even in the case of the last scenario, that of the formation of a very weak minority conservative government.

The other possibilities

There are other possibilities, however. A more extreme and complicated one is to extend to the bitter end the joint parliamentary sessions for voting for the premier until the Senate's term expires in May 2024. Unlikely also because it would worsen Thailand's already highly uncertain political and economic situation. Therefore, the pro-democracy coalition would be considering an alternative solution.

As reported by the Thai Enquirer, on Friday Thai afternoon Move Forward plans to propose to the House the amendment of Article 272 of the constitution, the one that allows the Senate to vote on the appointment of the prime minister. The proposal would pass with the support of half of the lower house deputies (250) and a third of the senators (84). According to Piyabutr Saengkanokkul, one of the leaders of the progressive movement, several of the senators who abstained from Thursday's vote could accept the amendment, which could then take effect within four weeks. It remains a complicated scenario. Meanwhile, the interim prime minister remains former coup general Prayut Chan-o-cha, in power since the 2014 coup. Prayut has announced his intention to retire from politics, but if the appointment of a new premier drags on for a long time his interim government would end up having to make important decisions, such as those regarding the budget for 2024 and the army and police reshuffle. Political instability has also always been a pretext in Thailand for "restoring order" through a coup. Hypotheses that no observer of Thai affairs ever feels like ruling out entirely.

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