Singapore

In 2025, Singapore celebrates the 60th anniversary of its independence and will hold general elections. Since 1965, the city-state has had only four prime ministers and one ruling party. Could there ever be surprises in the island of stability?

Article by Pierfrancesco Mattiolo

2024 was perhaps "the greatest electoral year in the history of humanity," with approximately four billion people worldwide called to the polls. To name just a few contests: the European Union, the United States, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. In 2025, it will be the turn of (inter alia) Singapore. Almost all these elections have generated a certain level of anticipation and uncertainty for the future. In contrast, Singapore’s elections seem rather predictable. Since gaining independence from Malaysia nearly 60 years ago, the city-state has been governed by a single party, the People's Action Party (PAP), and has had only four prime ministers. The current Prime Minister, Lawrence Wong, succeeded Lee Hsien Loong this past May. Lee Hsien Loong is the son of Lee Kuan Yew, the "founding father" of modern Singapore. The two Lees, father and son, served as the first and third prime ministers of Singapore, respectively.

After turning 70, Lee Jr. handed over the position to his deputy, Wong, just in time for the latter to establish himself ahead of next year’s elections. The exact date of the election is still unclear. Usually, Parliament is dissolved before the automatic dissolution required by the Constitution and after the committee tasked with redrawing constituency boundaries has convened. Formally, it is the President of the Republic who dissolves Parliament, upon the Prime Minister’s recommendation, which is, in turn, approved by Parliament. In other words, the electoral process is firmly in the hands of the PAP, which controls both the government and Parliament with a supermajority of over two-thirds of the seats. Uncertainty surrounds both the election date and the boundaries of the constituencies. In Singapore, constituencies are redrawn almost every election; as mentioned, the committee’s meeting is an informal milestone in the lead-up to the polls. These uncertainties make it more difficult for the opposition to plan their activities, as their candidates are unaware of their constituency boundaries or when to take time off work to campaign. The PAP, on the other hand, can deploy full-time politicians who are prepared when the short campaign officially begins, thanks to its near monopoly on public offices.

These challenges, combined with a heavily majoritarian electoral system, have allowed the PAP to maintain a parliamentary supermajority since independence. In 2020, the PAP won 83 out of 93 seats with 61% of the vote. The two main opposition parties, the Workers’ Party and the Progress Singapore Party, each garnered about 10%. The upcoming elections could offer the opposition an opportunity to chip away at the PAP's dominance, weakened by a series of scandals and the leadership transition from Lee to Wong. Wong is aiming for generational renewal to change the party’s image, which has become too closely associated with power and the country’s economic elites. There is also public dissatisfaction with the extremely high salaries of government members: Wong is, in fact, the highest-paid prime minister in the world ($2.2 million annually, compared to the average Singaporean income of $47,000 annually). These figures put debates over politicians' salaries in most countries (e.g., Italy) into a different perspective. The PAP defends its position by arguing that high salaries are necessary to attract talent from the private sector to public service, and indeed Singapore’s public administration is considered among the most efficient in the world. 

As seen in many countries, anti-establishment rhetoric can lead to surprising electoral results, and analysts suggest the PAP should not underestimate this risk. Wong, however, can set a very favourable electoral timetable for himself. The island celebrates its 60th Independence Day on 9 August, marking the anniversary of its expulsion from the Malaysian Federation due to deep political differences. National Day is followed annually, just a few days later, by National Rally Day, during which the Prime Minister delivers a speech outlining the government’s priorities. Elections will likely be held in early September, immediately following this period of government-led patriotic celebrations led by the government. Wong will also have several months to implement popular policies and adopt a more socially conscious approach, addressing the demands of lower-income voters. It is difficult to imagine surprises in next year’s elections. In these times of electoral upheaval, Singapore could be one of the few countries to emerge from the polls with a predictable political outcome. Voters will be choosing between the stability and continuity offered by the PAP and the change promised by the opposition, which has been excluded from power since the country’s independence. How will Singaporeans be convinced? On the one hand, the small size of the country, with two and a half million voters, could make grassroots mobilisation initiatives effective. On the other hand, the PAP relies on the support of the state apparatus and mainstream media. According to its critics, it does not hesitate to marginalise potentially critical voices. Some years ago, the independent website The Online Citizen was forced to temporarily suspend its activities due to alleged irregularities in publishing its revenue. In 2021, a law against "foreign interference" was passed, which Amnesty International harshly criticised. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index 2023, Singapore (alongside Italy) is listed as a “flawed democracy.” In a "perfect" democracy electoral surprises are, perhaps, quite frequent.

Since its independence in 1965, the creation of a “harmonious multiethnic society” has been one of the principles guiding the work of the city-state government

By Emanuele Ballestracci

“We, the citizens of Singapore, pledge ourselves as a united people, regardless of race, language or religion, to build a democratic society based on justice and equality in order to achieve happiness, prosperity and progress for our nation.” Every morning thousands of Singaporean students begin their day by reciting this mantra, exemplifying one of the cornerstones of its executive: governing through differences. Indeed, since its independence in 1965, the creation of a “harmonious multi-ethnic society” has been one of the guiding principles of the People's Action Party (PAP) in its uninterrupted rule of Singapore. 

The relevance of this issue lies in the peculiar composition of the Singaporean population and the ethno-social clashes that have historically characterized its decolonization process, albeit to a lesser extent than in the broader regional context. In South and Southeast Asian states, especially Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and India, riots and violent clashes between different ethnic groups are in fact phenomena that have often been repeated after their independence. In 1965, Singapore's population was about 75 percent Chinese, 13 percent Malay, 7 percent Indian, and 5 percent so-called Others (migrant workers and Eurasians), and the figures have remained roughly stable to the present day. Given such heterogeneity, ethnic-social governance was an existential challenge for the fledgling city-state from the very beginning. It was clashes between Singaporeans of Chinese and Malaysian origin in 1964, which resulted in 36 deaths and hundreds of injuries, that led PAP founder Lee Kuan Yew to scuttle the federation project with Malaysia and the subsequent establishment of Singapore as an independent state. Since then such incidents have declined exponentially, leading Singapore to be the much-vaunted model of social order and stability that it is today.

To achieve a so-called “harmonious multicultural society” over the years, the PAP launched a series of highly successful initiatives, chief among them the choice of English as the lingua franca. This choice allowed the former British colony to create a neutral space in which to develop shared values and identity, while allowing the various ethnic groups to maintain the use of their traditional language. In fact, Mandarin Chinese, Malay, and Tamil remain the country's official languages and depending on ethnicity are taught alongside English. In some cases even the legislative system has been adapted to Singapore's particular multicultural composition, and family legislation is a clear example. In fact, the Women's Charter is the main source on the subject, but there is a parallel legal and judicial system to follow Muslim law on marriage, divorce, maintenance, and child custody. 

Then there is the quota system for the allocation of public housing, which accounts for 80 percent of the total in Singapore, created in 1989 in order to reflect the ethnic composition of the population in each district, neighborhood and condominium. This has prevented the creation of mono-ethnic enclaves and encouraged the creation of multicultural communities. A quota system also ensures minimum representation in parliament for minorities, and the office of Head of State is traditionally given to a Malay or Indian, further balancing the political weight of each ethnic group. 

Finally, a dense body of legislation has been enacted over the years that allows the Singapore government to severely punish any kind of racial violence or discrimination, whether offline or online. Such punishments have often been criticized for being far too harsh, in remonstrance of the importance the PAP places on the issue of social harmony. Further evidence of this is the swiftness with which such laws are updated to respond in a timely manner to new forms of racial hatred. 

However, not all that glitters is gold, and Singapore is certainly no exception. Indeed, the designation of the respective ethnic groups remains a controversial and extremely rigid process. In identifying the major social components, all the specificities within them, all three of which were extremely rich, have been flattened out. Moreover, the ability to change the racial identity attributed is also limited for the children of interracial couples, who must still designate a “main race” for their children for administrative purposes. Also presenting critical issues are the system of political representation of minorities and the admittedly celebrated housing system. Indeed, the political supremacy of ethnic Chinese remains a constant in the history of the city-state, while quotas for the allocation of public housing have distorted the housing market, increasing economic inequality among the population.

Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan's Address to the UN Security Council.

“The United Nations is at a turning point. We need to reform multilateral and UN institutions to address current and future challenges, including the reform of this Security Council itself,” said Singapore's Minister of Foreign Affairs Vivian Balakrishnan at the open debate at UN Headquarters. “All permanent members should focus on the broader goal of ensuring international peace and security. However, the rising trend of veto exercise suggests that we cannot leave it to the five permanent members to voluntarily change their behavior. The UN as a whole must agree on how the veto should be exercised in the future, and Singapore is ready to discuss this further at the General Assembly. The approach is not to encroach on the mandate of the Council, but to avoid actions that prevent this Council from fulfilling its mandate,” he added. The reference is probably to the cross vetoes placed on some resolutions regarding the war in Ukraine and ii bombing of Gaza. “The role of the elected members of the Security Council needs to be strengthened,” Balakrishnan said. “We saw how the 10 elected members bridged the gaps when the permanent five were instead mired in mutual distrust and paralysis. Given the powerful bridging role of the elected 10, the elected members should have more say in the decision-making process, and they should be empowered to lead or read key issues together, particularly with regard to their respective regions. The Security Council also needs to do more to prevent conflict. It should work more closely and effectively with the other main organs of the UN to facilitate early warning and response. Article 99 of the U.N. Charter, which allows the Secretary-General to bring to the attention any issue that in his opinion may threaten the maintenance of peace and security, is in fact a powerful tool of preventive diplomacy. I am pleased that the Pact for the Future made reference to it. However, this Council needs to react more quickly with a concrete response when the Secretary-General invokes Article 99, particularly for humanitarian disasters and mass atrocities,” concluded Singapore's Foreign Minister.

We publish here excerpts from speeches by Dr. Ng Eng Hen, Singapore's Minister of Defense, at the Shangri-La Dialogue

We must and can avoid a physical conflict in Asia. Nor could we in the world endure another geopolitical shock after the war in Ukraine and what is happening in the Middle East. And I feel I can say that one of the prevailing moods among ministers and officials attending this year's Dialogue, compared to last year's Dialogue, is that what happened in Europe and the Middle East “must not happen in Asia.” We are learning important lessons to do or not to do by observing what is happening. (...) I would say that there is a strengthened determination that conflict should not happen in Asia. The United States and China are predominant players and their relationship will influence the future of the Asia-Pacific. Since the Shangri-La Dialogue last year, there have been positive signs. Joe Biden and Lloyd Austin have made it clear that the U.S. wants competition but not conflict. And these days the Secretary of Defense has stressed that a war is neither imminent nor inevitable. Xi Jinping has assured that he does not want to challenge the U.S. role and that he does not want a new cold war. (...) But in this stream of events that also sees signs of trade clashes, it is important to increase dialogue at the highest level. Trade and security are two sides of the same coin. The regional security architecture leaves countries believing that they need new deterrence initiatives, but we must not forget about the crucial role of reassurance. Despite their strategic rivalry, both the United States and China are critical to the global economy, on which they all depend. (...) Washington and Beijing do not need a third party to mediate between them, and I also doubt that a third party can help them. They must and can deal with this issue on their own. We, understood as Singapore and as ASEAN, can foster increased cooperation among the various regional and international actors. We are like the hobbits in “Lord of the Rings”: ASEAN should keep the ring because the great powers covet it too much. We are devoted to neutrality and prosperity. Even if we occasionally have disputes among ourselves, we resolve them peacefully. Look at the agreements between Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam over the South China Sea. (...) Our approach is to convince the powers, be they large, medium or other, that it is in their collective interest to have a system that protects the rights of both large and small powers. An inclusive system to avoid military alliances and trade blocs.

We publish here an excerpt from the inauguration speech of Lawrence Wong, the new prime minister of the city-state

Today marks a significant milestone: a passing of the baton, not only between leadership groups, but also between different generations. I am the first Prime Minister of Singapore to be born after independence. Almost all of my team colleagues were also born after 1965. The story of my generation is the story of independent Singapore. Our lives bear witness to the values that have forged our nation: Incorruptibility, meritocracy, multiracialism, justice and equality. These principles are deeply rooted in all of us. We understand the vital importance of good leadership, political stability and long-term planning. We ourselves are the beneficiaries of the imaginative policies of our founding fathers, pursued with determination and patience for decades. Shaped by these experiences, our leadership style will be different from that of previous generations. We will lead in our own way. We will continue to think boldly and think far ahead. We know there is still much to be done as the history of our island-nation continues to unfold. There are still many pages to be written. And the most beautiful chapters of our Singapore history await us. (...) Singapore's position is strong. But the world around us is constantly changing. For 30 years, since the end of the Cold War, we have enjoyed unprecedented peace and stability in the Asia Pacific. Unfortunately, that era is over. Great powers are competing to shape a new, as yet undefined global order. We need to prepare for these new realities and adapt to a more messy, riskier world. (...) Today Singapore is at a high economic level compared to most other countries. By international standards, we have built excellent systems of education, housing, health care and transportation. But circumstances are changing, technology is advancing and the population is aging rapidly. Therefore, we cannot afford to muddle along. We must continue to do our best to improve, upgrade and transform Singapore. I am convinced that we can and must do better. As Singaporeans, we all know what it means to exceed expectations, to go beyond what others think we can do, or even what we ourselves thought we could do. When the going gets tough, we don't collapse. We move forward, with confidence in our fellow citizens and in Singapore's future.

Full speech here

After 20 years Singapore is changing Premier. And for the first time, it is not a member of the Lee family

By Francesco Mattogno

On May 15, Singapore will have a new prime minister, the fourth in its history. As has always been the case since the city-state's independence (1965) to the present, the handover will not be due to the result of an election, or a vote of no confidence in parliament. For the third time since it has been in power, that is, since forever, the People's Action Party (PAP) has carefully planned well in advance the leadership change, which will pass into the hands of the “fourth generation” (4G) of party leaders.

Last April 15, the current premier Lee Hsien Loong, who has been in office since 2004, announced that he will leave his post to Wong Shyun Tsai, known to all as Lawrence Wong. Underscoring how everything has been organized down to the last detail, a month in advance we already know the time when the swearing-in ceremony will be held in the presidential palace in Singapore, namely 8 p.m. on May 15, precisely. Wong will thus become the fourth prime minister in the country's history, the second not to be a member of the Lee family.

Lee Hsien Loong is in fact the eldest son of Lee Kuan Yew, who came to power in 1959 and the first premier in the independent history of the Republic of Singapore, which became an autonomous state in 1965 following its split from Malaysia. The PAP has ruled continuously ever since, legitimized by the enormous economic growth of the city-state, which it has transformed over the decades into one of the world's leading financial centers. Singapore holds regular elections, which the PAP has always overwhelmingly won, monopolizing parliament. The next ones are scheduled by November 2025, but could be brought forward.

The change of leadership comes at perhaps the most sensitive time in the PAP's history. Meanwhile, in contrast to what happened during the 1990 handover between Lee Kuan Yew and his successor, Goh Chok Tong, the Lee family's historic hold on the party seems likely to fade in the near future. At that time Goh immediately appointed Lee Hsien Loong as his deputy, making it already clear how he would be the future leader of the PAP and premier of the country, more than a decade in advance.

Today, however, there do not seem to be any Lee heirs on the horizon ready to keep the PAP a family-owned asset for decades to come. This will make Wong the first premier to have no explicit connections to the Lees, although it is likely that, at least for the next few years, Lee Hsien Loong will continue to exert his influence over the PAP and thus the country.

Also complicit in this situation, the party has begun to show signs of fragility. Wong was not the first choice for the leadership change. Before him in 2018 was designated Heng Swee Keat, who was supposed to take Lee's place as early as a few years ago. The outbreak of the Covid pandemic led the PAP to postpone the transition, whose stability was then challenged by the 2020 elections, in which the party won “only” 83 of the 93 elective seats, one of the worst results in its history. The relatively modest outcome of the vote convinced Heng to step aside.

Instead, the pandemic proved to be an opportunity, for Wong. A former finance minister and deputy prime minister, Wong was noted for the good work he did as co-chair of the task force set up by the government to handle the emergency caused by Covid. In 2022, the PAP leadership then appointed him leader of 4G and de facto successor to Lee, but not unanimously (15 in favor out of 19), denoting at least a slight internal fragmentation. To this must be added the scandals that in recent months have technically led to the resignation, in practice the removal, of parliament speaker Tan Chuan-Jin (over an extramarital affair with a female MP) and Transport Minister Subramaniam Iswaran, who was accused of corruption (we reported on them here).

The two affairs caused a stir, undermining the image of integrity and fairness that the PAP has built up over the decades and contributing to the strengthening of the opposition, led by the Workers' Party (WP). The party's 4G members thus do not enjoy the same level of adulation shown by Singaporeans toward previous leaders (there is already no shortage of nostalgics and hagiographies of Lee Hsien Loong).

Wong will have to deal with this and a domestic situation that is not the best. Although Singapore's per-capita income remains among the highest in the world ($80,000 in 2022), income inequality between the upper and lower segments of the population is increasing, as is the cost of living. This is leading Singaporeans to have fewer and fewer children or leave the city-state, while the country's perception as a stable financial center is being eroded by increasing corruption and “dirty” money laundering. The various international crises are also challenging the international order that has allowed Singapore to thrive in recent decades.

We publish here an excerpt from the inauguration speech of Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Singapore's new president

I have dedicated my life to serving Singapore, our home. Nothing could be more meaningful to me. My greatest privilege has been to work actively on the ground, week after week, for more than two decades. Listening to people's hopes and concerns, helping them overcome life's difficulties and sharing their joys. (...) An equitable and inclusive society goes far beyond government policies. It is about all of us. It is about the respect and friendship we bring to one another. Regardless of our background and educational achievement. Regardless of race, religion or any other differences. And it's about knowing that if one group of our people loses hope, all of us will have less hope as Singaporeans. Now more than ever we need to deepen our solidarity as Singaporeans so that we can lift each other up. (...) The challenges facing our country will increase. We are in a time of transition, both in Singapore and internationally. We are entering a new, more difficult and more complex era. The world is increasingly divided and unstable. Global crises-economic, geopolitical and environmental-are erupting more often. They will test all countries, especially smaller ones like Singapore. At home, in Singapore, we are becoming a democracy with more diverse opinions. I see this as inevitable and healthy, and I have said it many times. But our real challenge as Singaporeans is to ensure that this diversity of opinion does not lead us to a more divided society, like many others. We need to be a democracy with more room for diverse opinions and a thriving civil society. But to be confident in our future, we must also be a society with a strong center of shared aspirations and respect for all citizens.(...) We can and must strengthen a culture of respect for all Singaporeans in the years ahead. We must never become just another small country. I have been flying Singapore's flag internationally for many years and will actively work to strengthen existing partnerships and build new ones. (...) In my many years in government as a minister, I have remained true to my ideals of social justice and inclusion and have worked continuously, year after year, to build consensus on practical and sustainable ways to improve the lives of ordinary workers and citizens. Although the president is distinct from the government and does not engage in politics, I will never give up this purpose in my life and mental independence in the performance of my duties. We will go through ups and downs. But we are still one place where we can work together to make the future better for all.