Asean

Redazione published in Asean, Politics and strategy

The Centrality of ASEAN

The principle that sees Southeast Asian countries as the engine of the regional architecture is now widely accepted, writes Rahman Yaacob for the Lowy Institute

ASEAN is proposed as Southeast Asia's main platform for addressing regional challenges and confronting external powers. As several studies point out, the "centrality of ASEAN" is based on the assumption that the Southeast Asian regional organization should be the engine of the "evolving regional architecture of the Asia-Pacific."

At the beginning of the 21st century, ASEAN grew from its original five members to 10, adding Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam. This created the need for ASEAN to establish a new framework for intra-ASEAN relations and for ASEAN's relations with the world. The 2008 ASEAN Charter marked the first occasion when the term "ASEAN centrality" was used. The Charter explained that ASEAN should be the main driving force of members in relations with external partners.

In a White House statement following the visit of U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris to Jakarta to attend the ASEAN 2023 Summit, the term "ASEAN centrality" was used twice, with Washington declaring its commitment to this principle. The Americans were not alone. For several years, it has been customary for ASEAN partners, such as the European Union, to declare their support for ASEAN centrality.

On the surface, this suggests that the concept of ASEAN centrality has been accepted by the major and middle powers. Moreover, ASEAN's plethora of initiatives to engage outside powers, such as the East Asia Summit and the ASEAN Regional Forum, are evidence of ASEAN's convening power to help shape the regional order.

For ASEAN's centrality to function optimally, its members must be united and serve each other's interests. However, ASEAN's unity is highly improvable and upgradable to meet not only economic and trade but also diplomatic and political challenges in a unified manner.

ASEAN knows its limitations and the need for reform. In January, ASEAN convened a Track 2 workshop with the participation of Southeast Asian researchers to review its norms and practices. The goal was to maintain ASEAN's relevance in a changing regional security environment. However, any reform of ASEAN's practices and norms will be a long process. In the meantime, ASEAN can view the many statements of support for ASEAN's centrality as an excellent achievement.

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Mekong, biodiversity to be defended

WWF and its partners say that governments, dam investors and political consultants must come to an agreement to save river species

By Tommaso Magrini

Environmentalists have proposed a recovery plan in extremis to save what they call the 'irreplaceable' biodiversity of the Mekong River. The economic value of the fishery - on which 40 million people depend for over 4,900 kilometres from its source in China to the Vietnam delta - has collapsed due to development that has decimated the river's ecosystem, according to a recent report published by some two dozen nature conservation organizations led by the non-governmental organization WWF. The study 'Mekong's Forgotten Fisheries and Emergency Plan to Save Them' lists 74 endangered fish species, including the giant catfish and the giant freshwater stingray - the two largest freshwater fish in the world - and the climbing perch, Anabas testudineus, known for its ability to get out of the water and 'walk' on dry land. The sharp decline in fishing has been largely attributed by experts to 12 Chinese dams on the Lancang (the upper Mekong) and two downstream dams in Laos that would have drastically damaged the ecosystem. WWF and its partners say that governments, dam investors and policy advisors must come to an agreement to save river species, suggesting six steps, including protecting free-flowing rivers, restoring critical habits such as flood plains, and ending unsustainable resource management, particularly sand mining. According to activists, Cambodia could be on a roll after rejecting two major dam projects along the stretch of the Mekong from the Laotian border to Kratie province as part of a declaration of moratorium on dam construction issued in 2020. Environmentalists praised Cambodia's decision to protect an area of globally important biodiversity, home to some 80 Irrawaddy dolphins and 41 endangered species.

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The EU and Malaysia's forests

Southeast Asia's view on the new regulation that blocks imports of palm oil resulting from deforestation

“Can Europe save forests without killing jobs in Malaysia?” This was asked in a recent New York Times article, evidence that this is a particularly relevant topic not only at a bilateral but also international level. The European Union's looming ban on imports linked to deforestation has been hailed as a new standard to be met in climate policy - a significant step to protect the world's forests, which helps remove planet-killing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere . “The law requires traders to trace the origins of a mind-boggling variety of products: beef and books, chocolate and coal, lipstick and leather. For the European Union, the mandate, which will come into force next year, is a testament to the bloc's role as a global leader on climate change,” writes the New York Times, which however adds: “The move, however, remained caught in conflicting currents about how to address the economic and political trade-offs required by climate change.” In fact, developing countries are certainly not content, with Malaysia and Indonesia among the most explicit in criticizing the new legislation. Together, the two Southeast Asian countries supply 85% of the world's palm oil, one of seven critical products covered by the European Union ban. And I argue that the law puts their economies at risk. In their eyes, writes the New York Times, rich and technologically advanced countries (and former colonial powers) "are once again dictating terms and changing the rules of trade when it suits them". This view accords with developing countries' complaints that the dominant international order neglects their concerns. The dispute over palm oil also contains a central point in the economics of climate change, underlines the US newspaper: the thesis according to which middle- and low-income nations are forced to bear the cost of disastrous environmental changes caused mainly by the most rich. In its 2022 annual survey, the World Resources Institute found that Malaysia was one of the few places where deforestation did not worsen. And perhaps there is a space to protect both climate and economic needs, preserving the fruitful relations between the countries of South-East Asia and the European Union.

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Redazione published in Asean, Economy and trade

The coming digital transformation

The value of the sector industry will rise from 300 billion to 1 trillion by 2030, but could even reach 2 trillion

"Southeast Asian countries are on the verge of reaping a digital economic windfall, but the road to wealth depends on the qualification of the region's workforce." This was argued by Rich Lesser, president of the U.S.-based consulting firm Boston Consulting Group, in a recent interview with Nikkei Asia. BCG predicts that the value of the region's digital industries, such as e-commerce, will grow from the current $300 billion to $1 trillion by 2030. "But if the right foundation is laid, this figure could even double to $2 trillion," Lesser said. This digitalization transformation will reshape entire industries, from technology sectors such as software, telecommunications and artificial intelligence to those such as health care, education and agriculture. "It will be transformational for companies," Lesser said, "both to boost productivity and to open up new sources of growth." Lesser suggests that the region must prioritize the creation of "human capital in a meaningful way" to take advantage of the potential for digital growth. "Retraining is not just about getting people to work in hardware, software, telecommunications, but also getting health workers to know how to use technology or agri-tech to get farmers to use these technologies," he said. "ASEAN, like other parts of the world, will have to invest in upgrading and retraining the current generation of workers and offering different kinds of learning and skill development to younger people to prepare them." The expansion of the digital economy in ASEAN will strengthen the bloc's position in the global economy over the next 10 years. "It is now a key part of supply chains with China and a key part of supply chains with the rest of the world," said Lesser, who believes ASEAN has become more important because of the way it is addressing the U.S.-China relationship. "ASEAN does not want to be forced to choose sides ... and it does not want to depend on a relationship with China to the exclusion of other relationships with the United States and other Western countries," Lesser argued. The economic and political stakes for ASEAN stem from its strategic position, which pushes other countries to deepen their ties for fear that "if they don't do it, others will and they will fall behind," Lesser added. "It is rather a framework of opportunity because in today's world ASEAN plays a crucial role."

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Under Pressure: ASEAN and the Challenge of Maintaining Harmony in the South China Sea

Una delle maggiori rotte commerciali al mondo e ricchissima di risorse marine e minerali, quest’area ricopre un’importanza geostrategica ed economica incredibile

By Walter Minutella

In a world where the economy drives the global system, each actor seeks increasingly significant influence. The pillars supporting this economic system can be identified in two key elements: trade and resources. In this dynamic context, the South China Sea emerges as a region holding both factors.

The South China Sea is a strategically important maritime region bordering numerous countries, including several ASEAN members such as the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, and Brunei. The remaining actors in the area are China and Taiwan. Given its status as one of the world's major trade routes and rich in marine and mineral resources, including oil, this area holds incredible geostrategic and economic importance, making it a tension-rich zone.

In this context, ASEAN has been crucial in promoting stability and cooperation in the Asian region since its establishment. This is attributed to its philosophy, known as the "ASEAN Way," which has fostered an environment where member nations collaborate to address common challenges. 

The ASEAN Way is a diplomatic approach based on principles such as unanimous decision-making, non-interference in internal affairs, cultural sensitivity, gradualism, and flexibility. This model aims to promote peaceful cooperation among member states, avoiding open conflict and encouraging harmonious coexistence. However, it has faced criticism for its tendency to delay assertive decisions in complex situations, such as those in the South China Sea.

Within the context of disputes in the South China Sea, ASEAN has grappled with complex tensions. Historically, the situation in this area has been intricate. Until 1984, original ASEAN member states shared an anti-communist stance, reflecting suspicion toward Chinese expansionism. The admission of Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, and Cambodia changed the political and economic dynamics of the region. These new members, with deep economic ties to China, gradually influenced how ASEAN addresses tensions, weakening the initial distrust.

Despite ASEAN's success in maintaining peace in a historically turbulent region, its response to South China Sea disputes has been less assertive. Due to the unanimity principle in the ASEAN Way, finding solutions that meet all needs was challenging. However, recent developments show actions by ASEAN states, both individually and collectively, aimed at establishing greater peace and stability in the region.

In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration's ruling in The Hague was a crucial moment in resolving territorial disputes in the South China Sea, particularly between China and the Philippines. The Court rejected China's territorial claims based on the "Nine-Dash Line," a unilaterally drawn map asserting sovereignty over much of the South China Sea.

The Court's decision acknowledged the Philippines' right to pursue resources in its exclusive waters, rejecting Chinese claims restricting access and use of natural resources in the region. This verdict marked a significant turning point, emphasizing the validity of maritime claims based on international law, in contrast to China's unilateral positions.

In recent years, due to these disputes, Vietnam has expressed growing concerns about Beijing's actions in the South China Sea. Specifically, worries involve various incidents such as the construction of military infrastructure in the Paracel Islands, manoeuvres to hinder Vietnamese oil exploration, and fishing activity restrictions.

In 2020, despite the COVID-19 pandemic, the 53rd ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting (AMM) declared the continuation of efforts to implement the Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea. The persistent commitment reflects ASEAN's desire to establish a normative and diplomatic framework to manage tensions in the region, fostering peace and stability. However, a clear common position within ASEAN remains lacking, highlighting internal contrasts among member states and the complex mechanism behind these statements.

Nevertheless, the recent statements by ASEAN foreign ministers released in late December 2023 have gained significant importance as the first standalone communication from ASEAN on the South China Sea issue. In these declarations, the commitment to peace in the South China Sea is reiterated, expressing concern about recent developments. They emphasize the need to resolve disputes peacefully, fully implement the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties (DOC), and swiftly work towards a COC in accordance with international law, including the 1982 UNCLOS. The ministers aim to promote dialogue as a tool for regional stability.

Despite the somewhat delayed response, the statements express strong concerns about recent tensions, such as those between China and the Philippines, especially around the submerged feature of Second Thomas Shoal. Specifically, China has taken actions perceived by the Philippines as aggressive, hindering Filipino forces from resupplying an anchored ship, while China argues the legitimacy of its actions based on the "Nine-Dash Line." According to China, these actions represent necessary security measures to protect its national interests in the region. 

The united response from ASEAN foreign ministers sends a strong signal of cohesion and solidarity in addressing internal and international disputes. However, some observers argue that a statement alone is not sufficient, and more must be done to effectively address the delicate challenges in the South China Sea.

Indeed, a few months later, ASEAN continued its commitment to seeking greater stability in the region. During the first week of March 2024, at the special summit between ASEAN members and Australia in Melbourne, the Australian government praised ASEAN members' efforts to delineate their maritime boundaries and decided to allocate over $40 million for maritime security in the South China Sea. The funding was announced during the fiftieth anniversary of the dialogic partnership between the two parties. 

The ASEAN-Australia joint statement is another step towards regional collaboration. However, it remains to be seen whether this financial commitment will significantly contribute to tension resolution, and ASEAN might be called upon to play a more active role in promoting stability in the region.

It remains to be seen how ASEAN will evolve in managing the complex dynamics of the South China Sea. It is worth mentioning the minilateral initiatives adopted by some member states, as highlighted by recent dynamics between the Philippines and Vietnam. The two nations have recently signed a cooperation agreement between their respective coast guards. This memorandum of understanding aims to reduce the risk of operations in contested waters and represents a significant step toward joint tension management. This initiative demonstrates how member countries, even bilaterally, are actively seeking pragmatic solutions to promote peace and stability in the region.

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China's role in ASEAN trade

In recent years, Beijing and Southeast Asian countries have signed a series of economic cooperation agreements

Editorial by Lorenzo Riccardi, Managing Partner RsA Asia

Beijing's role in Asia is promoted through the volume of trade and the number of bilateral and multilateral agreements. In the Asia-Pacific region, China has signed 42 double taxation agreements, ten free trade agreements, and has promoted multilateral free trade agreements with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) nations, Gulf economies (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates), and Northeast Asian countries (Japan and Korea). The number of tax treaties, investment agreements, and free trade agreements is proportionally much higher in the neighboring countries of the Eastern area compared to other regions of the planet. This determines an accelerated trend in economic relations, especially with the primary trading partner: the ASEAN bloc. To strengthen the trade partnership, China and ASEAN have signed a series of agreements on economic cooperation over the past 20 years. These include a comprehensive agreement on global economic cooperation between ASEAN and China in 2002, the establishment of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) implemented in several phases between 2005 and 2010, the China-Singapore Free Trade Agreement in force since 2008, an ASEAN-China investment agreement in 2009, the ASEAN-Hong Kong SAR China Free Trade Agreement in force since 2019, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership signed in 2020, and the free trade agreement with Cambodia in force since 2022. Beijing has also signed mutual visa exemption agreements between 2023 and 2024 with Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore. A visa-on-arrival procedure is expected for Chinese citizens traveling to Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, and Myanmar, and a simplified e-visa procedure for Vietnam. Among the ASEAN countries, only the Philippines require advance visas for Chinese visitors. In China-ASEAN trade, Kuala Lumpur is the largest exporter with USD 102 billion in data from Chinese customs in 2023 (almost four times the volume of Italian exports to China), while Hanoi is the largest importer of Chinese products with about USD 137 billion. ASEAN and Beijing grow beyond the global average, and China has its primary trading partner in Southeast Asia with USD 911 billion in trade in December 2023, surpassing the aggregated import and export volume recorded by the People's Republic with the European Union (USD 783 billion) and the United States (USD 664 billion).

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Demographic trends in Southeast Asia

Addressing challenges related to urbanization, gender equity, and internal migration shifts will be crucial in shaping Southeast Asia's future

By Walter Minutella

In the lively and culturally rich region of Southeast Asia, known for its rapidly expanding economies, demographic challenges are emerging. While major powers like China, Japan, and South Korea are struggling with alarming population declines, an interesting opportunity arises for Southeast Asia. For instance, in 2024, China continued its downward trend with a mortality rate surpassing the birth rate, resulting in a population decrease of over 2 million. China also faces the issue of an increasingly ageing population, similar to Japan, one of the highest globally. However, attention must also be given to Southeast Asian countries, as they play a crucial role in the global demographic context. While Asian giants deal with declining birth rates and an ageing population, a closer look at demographic trends in Southeast Asian countries reveals a story of growth and transformation.

Examining the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), one of the five regional economic commissions reporting to the United Nations Economic and Social Council, we observe that, contrary to major Asian countries, Southeast Asia is experiencing a significant demographic improvement.

This favourable trend is primarily the result of various significant elements occurring in this specific region. Influenced by political strategies related to urban development, economic expansion, and infrastructure improvement, efforts have facilitated notable progress, including the current life expectancy of 73.2 years at birth, with projections indicating it will rise to nearly 78 by 2050.

Demographic data also highlight the favourable median age of the population, currently just above 29 years. Considering a birth rate exceeding 2, it becomes evident that the Southeast Asian region anticipates strong demographic growth in the coming years.

Naturally, the regional perspective does not align perfectly with all ASEAN countries. Within the socioeconomic landscapes of Southeast Asia, some countries experience significant demographic growth, while others face challenges similar to Eastern nations, adding depth and complexity to the overall narrative. This phenomenon is closely tied to a series of factors emphasising the unique characteristics of each nation.

Indonesia, with its expansive geography and rich cultural heritage, undergoes continuous demographic growth. Family planning initiatives and prioritising education, especially in rural areas, play a fundamental role in fostering an increase in fertility rates.

The Philippines, with its rich blend of cultural influences and diverse economic conditions, increasingly adopt policies promoting gender equality and improving access to healthcare, generating significant demographic growth. This unique combination of factors contributes to maintaining a remarkable birth rate.

Thailand, facing rapid population ageing, seeks to manage this demographic transition through policies aiming to support families, with a particular focus on balancing work and family life. 

Malaysia, on the other hand, grapples with changes in family dynamics and economic pressures, partly due to accelerated urbanisation in recent years. Therefore, work-family balance policies are crucial to adapt to these transformations.

However, in the context of these demographic dynamics in the Southeast Asian region, it's crucial to note the cases of Singapore and Vietnam, facing unique challenges. 

Despite Singapore's historic policy of recruiting foreign workers to support economic growth, it grapples with the complexities of a demographic inversion. According to government reports, a quarter of Singapore's population will be over 65 by 2030. The accelerated ageing of the "super-aged" population and declining fertility rates pose a threat to Singapore's social and economic fabric, further accentuated by the need to attract and retain healthcare personnel, as highlighted by recent financial incentives for nurses who often migrate for higher compensation.

Vietnam, known for its rapid economic progress, stands out for improvements in living conditions and a growing urbanisation process. These factors, along with policies supporting family planning and ensuring equitable access to education, converge to support balanced demographic growth. However, despite Vietnam's positive outlook, it's projected that the number of individuals over 60 will triple before 2050. With a birth rate that has declined from 6.5 decades ago to 2 currently, Vietnam may face a significant demographic decline, reaching just over 70 million inhabitants by 2100, compared to the current over 100 million. Consequently, the Vietnamese government is actively intervening to economically support large families, seeking to stimulate an increase in the birth rate.

Thoroughly analysing the demographic, economic, and social policies of each country is essential to fully understand the reasons behind these demographic trends and anticipate their future impacts in the complex Southeast Asian region. According to experts, family support policies, access to education, and job opportunities will significantly influence the region's demographic direction. Furthermore, managing challenges related to urbanisation, gender equality, and internal migration will be crucial in shaping the future of Southeast Asia.

It can be inferred that Southeast Asia presents a complex variety of demographic scenarios, each with its own peculiarities. Carefully monitoring these dynamics and understanding the socio-economic context of each country is essential to accurately outline the demographic future of this region, which is gaining increasing importance in the global scenario and currently appears to be on a rising trajectory with promising future prospects.

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One trip, three destinations

Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam aim to maximize tourism revenues by offering a "tri-country" package

By Tommaso Magrini

The leaders of Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia are making a big effort to encourage more international tourists to visit their three countries in one trip. In what is being billed as a unique and seamless travel experience, the premiers have raised this initiative -- dubbed "One Journey, Three Destinations" -- several times in recent months during their meetings on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit in Jakarta and the ASEAN-Japan Commemorative Summit in Tokyo. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet said the country will go further by hosting a conference involving tourism ministers from the three countries to develop the joint effort. Many travel agencies have already been conducting these so-called "tri-country" tours for some time. The three countries, which share borders, have complementary strengths to offer a diverse experience for travelers as they offer a blend of historical, cultural and natural heritages. Landlocked Laos is renowned for its tranquil atmosphere and vibrant cultural heritage. Cambodia boasts ancient temples and spiritual riches, while Vietnam offers a mix of vibrant cities and natural wonders set in serene countryside and the country's long coastline. Industry players said the visa issue remains one of the obstacles to overcome for the success of this tourism push between the three countries. The three governments call for a more streamlined visa process, including mutual recognition of visas, standardization of visa application procedures, unification of fees, and use of shared databases for information exchange. Since 2012, for example, Cambodia and Thailand have instituted a system that allows tourists to visit both countries with a single visa. A precedent that may soon be copied.

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L’AUSTRALIA PUNTA SULL’ASEAN

Pubblichiamo qui uno stralcio del discorso della Ministra degli Esteri Penny Wong al summit di Melbourne tra Australia e ASEAN

Quando l’ASEAN era ancora agli albori, circa cinquant’anni fa, il nostro visionario Primo Ministro Gough Whitlam riconobbe che l’ASEAN era già centrale nella gestione delle sfide della regione, e capì che lo sarebbe diventata sempre di più. Per questo motivo, si impegnò con entusiasmo a favore dell’ASEAN e ben presto l’Australia divenne il primo paese non membro a stabilire relazioni formali, quando il Primo Ministro Whitlam firmò per l’Australia come primo partner di dialogo dell’ASEAN. Il Primo Ministro Whitlam sapeva che, sebbene gran parte della nostra storia fosse in Europa, la nostra casa e il nostro futuro sono nella nostra regione. Ha riconosciuto il ruolo che il Sud-Est asiatico avrebbe avuto nel destino dell’Australia e del mondo. A sua volta, Whitlam vedeva l’Australia come “un vero partecipante al destino della regione”. E, come sempre, pensando al futuro, disse: “Non si può tornare indietro da questo impegno”. In effetti, è stato dimostrato che aveva ragione. E il nostro impegno è cresciuto fino a diventare un Partenariato strategico globale tra l’ASEAN e l’Australia, la formalizzazione dell’impegno permanente dell’Australia nei confronti della centralità dell’ASEAN. La formalizzazione di una verità che l’Australia non solo riconosce, ma abbraccia: condividiamo una regione e un futuro. Siamo legati dalla geografia che il destino ha scelto per noi e siamo rafforzati dal partenariato che abbiamo scelto per noi stessi. Le nostre nazioni e i nostri popoli si arricchiscono con gli scambi commerciali. Le nostre nazioni e i nostri popoli beneficiano della pace, della stabilità e della sicurezza che costruiamo insieme. La nostra fede nel successo condiviso è alla base dell’impegno dell’Australia per un maggiore partenariato economico. Abbiamo tutti la responsabilità di plasmare la regione che vogliamo condividere: pacifica, stabile e prospera. I nostri partenariati di difesa di lunga data nella regione, anche con gli Stati membri dell’ASEAN, non costruiscono solo interoperabilità, ma anche amicizia e comprensione. I Paesi della nostra regione dipendono dagli oceani, dai mari e dai fiumi per il loro sostentamento e per il commercio, comprese le rotte marittime libere e aperte nel Mar Cinese Meridionale. Per questo sono lieta di annunciare che nei prossimi quattro anni stanzieremo altri 64 milioni di dollari, di cui 40 milioni di dollari di nuovi finanziamenti, per potenziare i partenariati marittimi australiani nel Sud-Est asiatico. Sono inoltre lieta di annunciare un ulteriore stanziamento di 222,5 milioni di dollari per sostenere la resilienza nella subregione del Mekong. Una seconda fase del Partenariato Mekong-Australia porterà investimenti nella sicurezza idrica, nella resilienza ai cambiamenti climatici, nella lotta alla criminalità transnazionale e nel rafforzamento della leadership subregionale.

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Waste becomes a source of energy

Circular economy projects multiply in Southeast Asian countries

By Tommaso Magrini

As Southeast Asia's growing population generates more and more waste, the use of waste as an energy source is making headway, with Japanese companies and their incineration know-how leading the way. A waste incineration plant in Singapore's southwestern district, Tuas, is already able to process about 35 percent of the garbage generated daily by the city-state. About 500 to 600 garbage trucks transport waste 24 hours a day to the plant, whose power generation capacity reaches 120 megawatts. In 2022, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries announced that it had purchased all the shares of TuasOne, operator of the waste-to-energy plant. In 2022, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries announced that it had purchased all the shares of TuasOne, operator of the waste-to-energy plant. TuasOne was a joint venture between Hyflux, a major Singaporean water treatment company that has since collapsed, and Mitsubishi Heavy, which transformed TuasOne into a wholly owned company. Mitsubishi Heavy has designed and built four waste-to-energy plants in Singapore and claims to have the most extensive track record in the industry in Southeast Asia. A consortium led by Singapore's government-affiliated conglomerate Keppel has also received orders to design and build waste-to-energy plants in the country, which can also generate electricity using the heat produced during incineration. Indian research firm Mordor Intelligence predicts that the waste-to-energy market in Southeast Asia will grow from $3.3 billion in 2023 to $6.1 billion in 2028, an increase of about 80%. Plans to establish at least six such plants in Malaysia have been initiated between 2020 and 2021, and all are expected to be completed by 2025. In Thailand, construction of a plant began in 2020 to incinerate about 144,000 tons of waste per year and generate 6 megawatts of energy.

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ASEAN and minilateral diplomacy

According to Richard Heydarian of the University of the Philippines, cooperation among member countries is also useful at the bilateral or trilateral level

During a state visit to Vietnam a few weeks ago, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed an agreement to expand bilateral cooperation on maritime security. The two governments signaled that they will work more closely together to protect common interests in the South China Sea, especially with their coast guard forces. The announcement followed a similar face-to-face on security cooperation earlier in Manila between Marcos and Indonesian President Joko Widodo, who also made stops in Vietnam and Brunei. "These visits are more than symbolic," argues Richard Heydarian, senior lecturer at the University of the Philippines' Asia Center, in a commentary published in Nikkei Asia in recent days. According to Heydarian, considering the fact that ASEAN focuses on decision-making by consensus, "the bloc has sometimes been slow and unresponsive to major crises in its own backyard." In this context, Heydarian argues that "minilateral" cooperation among key members with common strategic interests "has the potential to make Southeast Asia a much more effective force in the Indo-Pacific region." Not a replacement for the bloc's role, but an extension and perhaps an enhancement of it. The expert commentary reads, "Although the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam are developing nations with relatively limited military capabilities, the trio can collectively contribute to ASEAN's centrality in shaping the regional security architecture and with greater strategic coordination." This year has already begun as a productive one for ASEAN minilateralism. Under strategic cooperation, Hanoi and Manila will collaborate on infrastructure development and co-production of batteries for electric vehicles, tapping the Philippines' large reserves of copper, nickel and cobalt. Vietnam in particular is the source of about 90 percent of the Philippines' rice imports. Later this year, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Japan are likely to join Vietnam for the annual Marpolex marine pollution exercise. Thus, minilateralism can also be useful in other areas besides security, according to Heydarian.

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ASEAN towards a solar boom

Due to the presence of renewable natural resources, Southeast Asia has ample room for growth in renewable energy production

By Tommaso Magrini

Southeast Asia wants to triple renewable energy production, in line with last year's UN commitment. And to do so it will probably receive a boost from China's record solar installations, which added 216.9 gigawatts of solar power in 2023, surpassing the 175.2 gigawatts generated in the United States, the world's second largest solar energy market. The sharp increase has encouraged a drop in renewable equipment prices, helping the rest of Asia. The result is that China has significantly more solar module export capacity in 2024 and 2025, and the resulting global oversupply is driving module prices down dramatically. "This is increasing the commercial profitability of solar energy compared to alternative sources of electricity, both within China and in the wider and global Asian markets," said the experts interviewed by the South China Morning Post. Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Singapore are accelerating renewable energy capacity in line with their net zero emissions targets by 2050 or 2060, but have found it difficult to reduce their reliance on coal and gas. The challenges for other Asian countries are "very different" from China's due to lack of access to financing and inadequate grid infrastructure and battery storage systems.Nevertheless due to the presence of renewable natural resources, Southeast Asia has a wide allowance of growth in the production of renewable energy. China is developing and financing solar power projects in the region. These include the 2.2-gigawatt Mekong River Floating Solar Project in Thailand, the 168-megawatt Don Sahong Dam Solar Project in Laos, and the 140-megawatt Cirata Floating Solar Project in Indonesia.

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