Aukus and Quad seen from ASEAN

Multilateral initiatives multiply in Asia-Pacific. Hopes and fears of Southeast Asian countries

Editorial by Alessia Mosca

Secretary General Associazione Italia-ASEAN

On the one hand Aukus and Quad, on the other RCEP and CPTPP. Multilateral initiatives and acronyms in the Asia-Pacific area are multiplying. New ones are born, while those that already exist are renewed. A trend that demonstrates once again the centrality of a region in continuous commercial, technological and geopolitical rise. As our President Romani Prodi said at “Mezz’ora in più”, “it is the definitive seal that the only thing that matters is Asia”. It remains to be seen whether development can proceed on tracks of substantial serenity or elements of tension will increase. Among the governments of ASEAN member states, not everyone welcomed the birth of the new US-UK-Australia agreement. In particular, Malaysia and Indonesia have warned of the possible risks to the stability of the region after the announcement of Aukus. Jakarta expressed “deep concern about the arms race and the demonstrations of force in the region, referring to nuclear-powered submarines that will be equipped in Australia. The Minister of Defence of Kaula Lumpur has instead launched the proposal to open a dialogue between ASEAN and Canberra to understand what the intentions of the trilateral agreement are. In contrast, the Philippines, which after the approach to China operated in recent years by President Rodrigo Duterte have resumed relations (even defensive) with the US of Joe Biden. Manila welcomed the Aukus as a novelty able to “equalize” the balance of power in the region and therefore to ensure greater stability. The Australian government, meanwhile, claims that it is not a “military alliance” and tries to reassure Southeast Asia about its support for the regional infrastructure represented by ASEAN. On Friday, September 24th, the first physical summit between the leaders of the Quad, the platform that unites the US, Australia, Japan and India, takes place in Washington. As in the case of the Aukus, most ASEAN countries would like these initiatives to look beyond the defensive aspect and, if anything, to include incentives for commercial, infrastructural, digital or environmental cooperation. On these issues, Asian countries have shown that they know how to dialogue, as on the closing of the negotiations on the RCEP in 2020. Be “pro Asia”, and not against someone: here is the key.