All projects lead to the Indo-Pacific

AUKUS is just the latest in a series of multilateral initiatives focused on the region. From the United States to the United Kingdom, from Australia to the European Union, all have a reason to increase their presence in the area.

By Dmitrii Klementev

All roads lead to Rome – one could say when the Roman Empire stretched across the vastness of the Mediterranean. The greatness of ancient civilizations shaped the way in which most of us see the planet approaching a world map centered on the Mediterranean. Now we see how the world is turning in the other direction - towards the Indo-Pacific region. Every year an increasing number of projects are being implemented in this region. More and more global actors adjust their strategies taking into account its growing importance. This article seeks to shed light on the most significant of them, drawing conclusions for the future of world order.

Recently, the signing of the “AUKUS” agreement has provoked heated discussions all around the globe. Some countries were even caught off guard by the decision of the US, the UK and Australia. Nevertheless, “AUKUS” is but one link in a big chain of events which has been gradually developing over the last decade and even not a surprising one.

With regards to the UK, the “Global Britain” foreign policy concept, issued in March 2021, particularly emphasized the importance of the Indo-Pacific region for the country. This shift in focus of British foreign policy was demonstrated already in 2016 when the country voted to leave the European Union. In line with the new strategy, the European countries are considered to be the UK’s competitors in the region, as long as it seeks to “establish a greater and more persistent presence than any other European country” in the Indo-Pacific.

The US, another “AUKUS” signatory state with which the UK enjoys the Special Relationship, started reorienting its foreign policy towards the Indo-Pacific even earlier. Therefore, it already possesses a number of ambitious initiatives, aiming to promote its influence in the region. On June 12, 2021 at the US initiative the G7 leaders launched the “Build Back Better World” (B3W) initiative, which is officially focused on addressing infrastructure needs in low- and middle-income countries. However, the absolute majority of experts tend to consider the project as an alternative to the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

It is worth mentioning that the Biden administration did not design the B3W initiative from scratch. It was based on the project developed under D. Trump - the Blue Dot Network (BDN). The latter was kicked off by the US, Japan and Australia in 2019 on the occasion of the Indo-Pacific Business Forum. The BDN aims to provide assessment and certification of infrastructure projects worldwide ensuring their compliance with a number of environmental, financial and social criteria. The rationale behind it was to divert countries from the Chinese BRI, which is believed to force them into indebtedness and, as a result, fall into the Chinese area of influence. Under the Biden administration the BDN started operating under the OECD.

For the third party to the “AUKUS” deal, Australia, the agreement became an opportunity to voice its concerns about regional security. Cooperation with the US and the UK, allows the country to achieve a nuclear-powered submarine fleet as well as potentially get access to long-range missiles and some other capabilities.

Without a doubt, China’s growing influence is the main reason explaining why Australia has become an active actor in big politics nowadays. This can be also confirmed by the fact that in 2018 Australia upgraded its relationship with Vietnam to a strategic partnership. Both Canberra and Hanoi share concerns about freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, which is the most important transport hub in the region.

Interestingly enough, “AUKUS” is not the first multilateral initiative in the region which brings the US, the UK and Australia together. Alongside Canada and New Zealand, the above mentioned countries form up the Five Eye intelligence alliance the establishment of which dates back to the beginning of the Cold War. Originally designed to counter the Soviet threat, nowadays, the alliance aims to deal with China.

Last but not least, the announcement of the “AUKUS” defense pact on September 15, 2021, outshadowed another important event – the presentation of the Indo-Pacific strategy by the European Union, which is not going to give up in the race for influence in the region.

Being preoccupied with the rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific, disregard for human rights and democratic values, the EU mainly relies on trade and investment policy instruments, since it is in these areas that the Union possesses a number of advantages in the region.

This list of initiatives, strategies and actors is far away from being exhaustive. However, even this may be enough to state that the world order has entered an active phase of transition. The latter represents a unique opportunity to make a breakthrough for those who lagged behind. Nevertheless, this process will equally show no mercy to those who ignored it. Probably, in a few years the centrality of the world map we are accustomed to will change, since almost all projects today eventually lead to the Indo-Pacific.